Poland election: votes counted as country awaits Tusk-led coalition

Poland’s electoral committee has finished counting the votes from the parliamentary election, as the country waits to see how long it will take for a new governing coalition led by Donald Tusk to be formed.

Sunday’s poll gave the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has ruled Poland for the past eight years, the most votes but no viable path to a parliamentary majority.

The final count showed PiS had received 35.4% of the vote, while Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, had 30.7%. With the centre-right Third Way, on 14.4%, and leftwing Lewica, on 8.6%, the three groupings should be able to put together a coalition that would form a comfortable majority in the 460-seat parliament.

Tusk claimed victory within minutes of the polls closing on Sunday evening, based on an exit survey. “No one can steal this election from us now,” he said.

With the vote count complete, President Andrzej Duda is expected on Tuesday to indicate his preference for which party should get the first chance to put together a coalition.

Tradition indicates he will turn to PiS, as the largest party, but with all other parties indicating they are not open to cooperating with it, the opposition have called on the president to take into account the political reality and give them the chance to build their coalition.

The result has prompted celebration from progressive Poles about the end of PiS rule, which has eroded the rule of law, rolled back abortion rights and targeted minorities and non-European migrants with hateful propaganda.

However, there remains a lingering fear of possible PiS gambits in the coming days and weeks. Caution also stems from the realisation that governing with a PiS-aligned president in office until 2025, and with numerous state institutionspacked with PiS supporters, governing will not be easy.

Still, after a series of polls in the run-up to the vote suggested the knife-edge election could result in political deadlock, the clear victory has delighted many. In the first-past-the-post ballot for the upper house of parliament, the three opposition groups cooperated to field single candidates against PiS in each district, and took 66 out of 100 seats.

The record turnout, at 74.3%, was 13% higher than for the parliamentary election four years ago and appears to have been a factor in the opposition’s victory. A particularly high voting rate among young people translated into more support for various anti-PiS parties.

In the capital, Warsaw, turnout was an extraordinary 84.9%. “You have shown the enormous power of civil society. I am proud! Thank you!” Rafał Trzaskowski, the Civic Coalition mayor of Warsaw, wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Another factor in the result was the decision not to unite opposition forces and run as a single anti-PiS list. In the end, giving people who wanted to vote against PiS but not for Tusk different options proved a wise strategy. While Lewica will be a little disappointed with its 8.6%, the 14.4% for Third Way, coming on the heels of a very strong performance in the only televised debate by its leader, Szymon Hołownia, appears to have maximised the anti-PiS vote.

The choice of democratic opposition parties also probably contributed to the dismal showing by Confederation, the far-right, anti-system party that had been polling well into double digits over the summer but in the end got just 7.2%

The victory is all the more remarkable given that the electoral playing field was hardly level. A preliminary monitoring report from the Organisation for Cooperation and Security in Europe released on Monday found that PiS “enjoyed clear advantage through its undue influence over the use of state resources and the public media”.