A death, an illness, and an uncertain Middle East
SINCE march 2023, when Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic ties, the two longtime foes have tried to put on a show of friendship. The routine has not been convincing. Then, for a moment this month, they seemed to take the unity act to another level. The Iranian president vanished, and the Saudi king fell ill. It was a reminder that both countries are on the brink of profound transition.
Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash on May 19th plunged Iran into political uncertainty. But anyone hoping it will become less belligerent in the region is likely to be disappointed. Mr Raisi was not the main architect of Iran’s foreign policy. Regardless of who replaces him as president, Iran will continue to support militias across the Middle East and to seek closer ties with Russia and China. Nor is its nuclear stand-off with the West likely to ease.
Still, his death will make ripples abroad. Mr Raisi was not alone on the helicopter: Hossein Amirabdollahian, the foreign minister, was also killed in the crash. Arab officials were surprisingly fond of him, a diplomat who spoke their language and knew the region. He had close ties with Hizbullah and other Iran-backed groups.
European diplomats, by contrast, found his lectures insufferable. They are happier with his interim replacement, Ali Bagheri-Kani, a conservative who is close to Iran’s supreme leader but remains open to serious discussions with his Western counterparts. He has been Iran’s lead negotiator in failed attempts to revive the multinational nuclear deal.
Whether they will have anything to discuss is another matter. Days before Mr Raisi’s death, America and Iran held indirect talks in Oman (Mr Bagheri-Kani represented his side). They hoped to calm tensions in the region after a series of tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran last month. That dialogue is probably now suspended. Iran is unlikely to do much diplomacy until after its presidential election, scheduled for June 28th. By the time a new Iranian president takes office and forms a cabinet, America will be close to its own vote in November. There will be little time for any serious diplomacy.
Instead, America will be focused on striking an agreement elsewhere. On the same day that Mr Raisi’s helicopter crashed, Saudi Arabia announced that King Salman, its 88-year-old monarch, was being treated for pneumonia at his palace in Jeddah. It was his second health scare in a month, after a brief stint in the hospital in April. The royal court has been tight-lipped about his condition. But it was serious enough that Muhammad bin Salman, the crown prince, postponed a planned visit to Japan and stayed close to home.
Unlike Iran’s case, there are no questions about succession in Saudi Arabia: Prince Muhammad will ascend the throne after his father dies. He has been the kingdom’s de facto ruler since he became heir apparent in 2017. For years, Saudi-watchers have wondered if his father held a veto over a few pet issues: normalisation with Israel, for example, or legalising alcohol in the kingdom. The ambiguity probably suited Prince Muhammad, since it allowed him to move slowly on controversial decisions. But it will end once he becomes monarch, and that is not far off: even if King Salman recovers from his lung infection, he probably does not have long to live.
On May 19th Prince Muhammad met Jake Sullivan, America’s national security adviser, to talk about a defence treaty. It is meant to be part of a broader deal that would also see Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel. But the Saudis say they cannot take such a step unless Israel commits to create a Palestinian state—something Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, will never accept.
With a three-way deal thus blocked, the Saudis are instead pushing for a bilateral agreement with America. They would agree to curtail ties with China, in exchange for the defence treaty and American help with a nuclear programme. They would also promise to normalise ties with Israel once a new Israeli government makes that possible. Perhaps that is not far off, since Mr Netanyahu is embattled and now may soon be indicted for war crimes.
American officials, though, say this is a non-starter, in part because a defence treaty is unlikely to get through the Senate if it is not linked to Saudi-Israeli normalisation. That leaves the future Saudi king with a difficult choice. He could recognise Israel without any concessions from Mr Netanyahu, which would secure the defence pact but at the risk of both domestic and regional anger. Or he could postpone the whole deal indefinitely.
All this makes for an odd moment. Mr Raisi was not the most powerful man in the Islamic Republic, and King Salman is arguably not the most powerful in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Yet the death of the former and the illness of the latter both herald a moment of real change in the region. ■
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