As U.S. election nears, gloom settles over Ukraine

It’s doubtful Zelensky would receive as rapturous a reception in Congress now. The small caucus of ultranationalist Republicans who scoffed in 2022 at the reception for him and the vast sums of U.S. taxpayer money being deployed in Ukraine’s defense represent more of a critical mass in 2024. Their skepticism over backing Kyiv is underscored by both Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio). The former is conspicuous in both his chumminess with Russian President Vladimir Putin and indifference toward Ukraine’s war effort. The latter has made clear his desire to end U.S. support for Ukraine’s continued resistance and was described by Zelensky himself as “too radical.”

Last month, Zelensky discussed elements of his “victory plan” in the United States, engaging in meetings with key American interlocutors after attending the high-level session of the U.N. General Assembly. His appearance with Trump was notable for its awkwardness. The former U.S. president touted his “very good relationship” with Putin. Zelensky, standing next to him, was at pains to stress that the Russian leader had “killed so many people” and was presently illegally occupying Ukrainian territory.

Still, after their meeting, Zelensky posted on social media: “We have a common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must win.” Trump, for his part, posted nothing about any desire for Ukrainian victory and warned that if he lost the election to Vice President Kamala Harris, the “war will never end, and will phase into WORLD WAR III.”

It’s not just the top of the Republican ticket. On both sides of the pond, cynicism and fatigue is setting in, with even some of Ukraine’s most ardent boosters recognizing that the clock is ticking on the West’s ability to sustain Kyiv’s fight. Domestic politics and the shadow of the U.S. election are all part of the equation, but so, too, are the facts on the ground in Ukraine.

The country is reaching exhaustion in its fight, outmanned and outgunned by a Russian war machine unbowed by Western sanctions. Ukraine’s late summer incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast provided a welcome morale boost but, thus far, little strategic dividend. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s forces on the eastern front are flagging in the face of an extended Russian onslaught, losing territory at a steady clip in the contested Donbas region. The battles remain attritional and are extracting a huge cost in Russian lives, but that appears to be a cost the Kremlin is prepared to pay as it presses its advantage.

“Enemy troops are storming the battlefields in small teams that minimize detection and make return fire difficult, backed by superior quantities of artillery and drones,” my colleagues outlined this month. “Russia has also improved its battlefield communication, helping coordinate attacks. While losses are staggering, Ukrainian soldiers have said, the Russians have the numbers to keep up the pressure and Western aid isn’t making up the equipment deficit.”

“It just happens that we constantly need to fall back,” a junior commander told my colleagues, “because the Russians have much more strength.” Another commander manning a position near the embattled eastern city of Pokrovsk told the Financial Times that his priority was saving as many lives of his comrades as possible — forget about Ukraine’s stated war goals of reclaiming all its lost territory, including Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.

“It’s quite hard to imagine we will be able to move the enemy back to the borders of 1991,” the commander said, referring to the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

That reality has been implicitly understood for months by Western leaders and diplomats but is finally being acknowledged. Czech President Petr Pavel, whose nation is one of central Europe’s most vociferous backers of Kyiv, recently said that Ukrainians “will have to be realistic” and that “the most probable outcome of the war will be that a part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily.”

Zelensky is set to reveal the full details of his “victory plan” this week after presenting it to President Joe Biden and other western leaders. It’s likely to call for further significant military assistance as well as political commitments centering on clear security guarantees to Kyiv in the absence of full membership in NATO. There’s a fracturing consensus among Western governments about how much of Zelensky’s “wish list” should be granted. But Kyiv is, at best, hoping the West can give it as strong of a boost as possible at a future negotiating table.

That’s a far cry from the outright “victory” many expected. As they slug their way to an unwanted stalemate, analysts fear a sort of bitterness will set in among Ukrainians, especially if they have to cede territory captured by Russia. The United States and European governments have poured many billions of dollars into the fight, but the slowness of the arms transfers and the restrictions placed on the usage of certain long-range Western munitions is a source of frustration for Kyiv. In the aftermath of a theoretical truce, the pro-Western mood in Ukraine could shift.

Robert Kagan, writing in the opinion pages of The Washington Post, gestured to the brewing anger that will remain in the aftermath of a negotiated peace, something that may prove a constant headache for Russia — as well as Western governments eager to tamp down tensions. “This well-armed postwar Ukraine … is going to be an intensely hostile neighbor,” Kagan wrote. “Ukrainians won’t soon forget the death, destruction, murder and torture suffered at Russia’s hands during the war. There will be potent strains of revanchism as Ukrainians mourn their lost territory and yearn for its eventual return.”

And no matter the Western support that would probably continue, there may be burgeoning resentment toward the West.

“A guilty West would doubtless provide aid to rebuild infrastructure,” Tim Willasey-Wilsey of Britain’s RUSI think tank wrote. “But joining the Western club may have lost its appeal at that point.”

“Ukraine’s corrupt oligarchs would reemerge from hibernation. The old post-Soviet cynicism would replace the youthful enthusiasm of the [2014 pro-democracy] Maidan generation,” Willasey-Wilsey added.