The capitol Hill club, in Washington, dc, is a venerable gathering spot for the city’s Republican elite. It is minutes from the offices of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Its Eisenhower Lounge boasts no fewer than 458 elephant statues; its ornate lobby features portraits of Ronald Reagan, both George Bushes and a younger Donald Trump. A grizzled shoe-shiner says that he has polished the shoes of all of those presidents bar the last. He also notes a recent change in the club’s clientele: Washington’s power-brokers, with “fancy loafers”, are back in force.
During his first presidential campaign, Mr Trump vowed to “drain the swamp”. Once he was in power, K Street, the home of the conventional lobbying powerhouses, was duly frozen out as more Trumpian lobby groups gained favour. Under Joe Biden corporate lobbying spending shot up (see chart 1), largely owing to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a climate law offering huge subsidies. Again, though, the K Street schmoozers missed out; this time because the technical nature of the subsidies meant that lobbying power shifted to firms with expertise in tax law and energy policy.
Now the swamp creatures are hoping that Mr Trump’s second term will lead to their resurgence. One reason is that America’s corporate giants are panicking over the president’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs on April 2nd. Such levies could hurt all sorts of companies, from pharma firms to electronics manufacturers. Many are turning to lobbyists for help (see chart 2). Another reason is that many companies are worried about the possible abolition of Mr Biden’s green subsidies.
Yet K Street has its work cut out. For a start, the new Trump administration is run more professionally than the last. “This crowd is disciplined and more operationally functional, whereas the first time was like a kid learning to ride a tricycle,” says an experienced lobbyist. Susie Wiles, a lobbyist turned White House chief of staff, has tightened access. She reportedly insists that lobbying calls to Mr Trump’s phone are routed through senior officials.
The new administration also dislikes outside voices. One big-tech firm pays lobbyists and trade associations but, an insider confides, “they are not effective with Trump…he likes founders and CEOs.” Another lobbyist despairs that the Department of Commerce is useless because “the president is...relying on MAGA-ish figures like Peter Navarro”, an adviser who is seems impervious to lobbying. Elon Musk is immune, too. Better to target David Sacks or Peter Thiel, tech billionaires close to Mr Musk, because “no lobbying firm is claiming to access Musk”, is the conclusion of yet another lobbyist.
On top of this, Congress, which is usually where K Street interferes with the legislative sausage-making, has thus far acceded to Mr Trump’s agenda. Many had assumed that the IRA’s subsidies, which mostly go to Republican districts, would be saved by conservative congressmen. Even that is now open to question.
So what works? One tactic is for bosses to shower praise on Mr Trump. Sam Altman, founder of OpenAI, an artificial-intelligence giant, switched from criticising Mr Trump to declaring he would be “incredible for the country”. Less prominent chief executives have taken note.
Companies are finding new ways to suck up. Some are scrubbing blacklisted words such as “diversity” and “climate” from their corporate literature. The co-founder of a startup making sustainable aviation fuel, which can replace jet fuel and cut greenhouse gases, has rebranded her product as “synthetic aviation fuel”. Another tactic recognises that Mr Trump is transactional, says a lobbyist, so in any interaction “you have to bring him a gift”. She describes a city threatened with cuts to federal funding, after Mr Trump claimed it was a hotbed of criminal migrants, which made peace with him by offering to conduct a migrant crackdown on behalf of the administration.
Another approach is to penetrate the wall around Mr Trump. Membership at the president’s Mar-a-Lago club is a popular route, as chance encounters with the president are possible, but does not come cheap. According to a report by wired, a magazine, firms are paying up to $5m for private access to him there. “As a foreign entity,” says a lobbyist, “you’d be crazy not to invest in that kind of relationship.” Some lobbyists promote clients’ messages on media outlets favoured by Mr Trump, such as Fox News and conservative podcasts.
All this should add up to a golden opportunity for lobbyists. But the challenge of influencing Mr Trump’s new regime, coupled with acute policy uncertainty, is leaving some concerned about their long-term prospects. A leading business group cautions that, unlike during Mr Trump’s first presidency, when tariffs ultimately proved manageable, this time “something bad is going to happen.” A prominent lawyer sums up the mood of the town: “We are all afraid of April 2nd.” ■