After the president’s arrest, what next for South Korea?
THE PRESIDENCY of South Korea can be a treacherous job. Past office-holders have been impeached and even assassinated. But until January 15th, when investigators took Yoon Suk Yeol into custody, a sitting president had never been arrested.
Mr Yoon’s detention on insurrection charges stems from his attempt to impose martial law last month. Since that self-coup failed, Mr Yoon has barricaded himself inside the presidential residence in central Seoul. The National Assembly impeached him on December 14th, temporarily suspending him from office and triggering a trial at the constitutional court. Separately, investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials (CIO) opened a criminal case against him. (Insurrection is an exception to presidential immunity in South Korea.)
After Mr Yoon refused to appear for questioning, the CIO sought a warrant for his arrest. The first attempt to serve it, on January 3rd, ended in failure after an hours-long standoff between police officers and armed guards from the presidential security service, which chose to protect the president. In recent weeks the president’s residence has been reinforced with barbed wire and buses, gearing up for a second standoff. The possibility of an armed clash appeared disturbingly real.
The police came back better prepared on the morning of January 15th. Some 3,000 officers assembled, according to Yonhap, a South Korean news agency. They pushed past crowds of Mr Yoon’s supporters and breached the walls before dawn, using ladders to climb over fences. But this time the bodyguards put up little resistance, and Mr Yoon relented, saying in a video statement that while he considered the warrant “illegal”, he co-operated in order to avoid “unpleasant bloodshed”.
The arrest brings the embarrassing standoff between branches of the South Korean state to an end. But it is far from the finale in the unfolding drama. Investigators have 48 hours to question Mr Yoon; they must seek an additional warrant to hold him for another 20 days. If an indictment is upheld, it will trigger a criminal trial that could theoretically end with a sentence of life imprisonment or, though very unlikely, even the death penalty. Mr Yoon has pledged to fight the charges.
In the meantime the constitutional court is pressing forward with its trial. The process must conclude within 180 days of the day he was impeached; at least six of the eight judges hearing the case must vote in favour for the impeachment to stand. If Mr Yoon is ultimately removed from office, South Korea’s constitution mandates fresh presidential elections within 60 days.
The sustained turmoil is straining the country. The consumer-sentiment index dipped to 88.4 in December, from 100.7 a month earlier, the biggest single-month drop since the start of the pandemic. The unemployment rate also rose from 2.7% in November to 3.7% in December, the highest rate since mid-2021. Following the impeachment in early 2017 of Park Geun-hye, one of Mr Yoon’s predecessors, foreign direct investment fell by nearly 40% during the subsequent quarter; the current crisis could make investors similarly skittish.
Mr Yoon’s intransigence in the face of the charges against him has helped rally his supporters and further polarised the country’s politics. Many of his core supporters have come to believe his claims of election fraud; some have protested with signs reading “Stop the Steal”.
Though a majority of South Koreans still support Mr Yoon’s impeachment, their numbers have shrunk: 64% say the president should be impeached, down from 75% a month ago, while 32% say he should be reinstated to office, according to polling by Gallup Korea. That probably will not save Mr Yoon. But it suggests that the country’s political strife will outlast him.■