BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 4. Fitch Ratings has lowered its oil price assumptions for 2025–2027, citing market oversupply, Trend reports via Fitch.
“The short- and medium-term Brent and WTI price assumptions have been reduced to reflect large market oversupply, with production growth outpacing modest demand increases. This also considers uncertainty around Russian volumes and OPEC+ policy following a pause in the reversal of output cuts in 1Q26. We have kept longer-term and mid-cycle assumptions unchanged, as lower prices should constrain higher-cost supply growth. Geopolitical risks will add to volatility,” Fitch said.
Under the base case scenario, Brent forecasts have been revised as follows: $69/bbl for 2025 (down from $70), $63/bbl for 2026 (down from $65), and $63/bbl for 2027 (down from $65). Forecasts for 2028 and mid-cycle remain at $60/bbl.
WTI forecasts are now $64/bbl for 2025 (previously $65), and $58/bbl for 2026 and 2027 (down from $60). Forecasts for 2028 and mid-cycle remain unchanged at $57/bbl.
In the stress case scenario, Brent forecasts have been revised upward: $69/bbl for 2025 (from $35), $45/bbl for 2026 (from $35), while 2027, 2028, and mid-cycle remain at $45/bbl, $48/bbl, and $48/bbl respectively. WTI forecasts in this scenario also increased to $64/bbl for 2025 (from $32) and $42/bbl for 2026 (from $32), with 2027, 2028, and mid-cycle remaining at $42/bbl, $45/bbl, and $45/bbl.
Fitch expects global oil demand to grow by about 0.8 million barrels per day (mmbpd) in 2025 and 2026 due to slower economic growth, a downturn in the petrochemicals sector, and the energy transition.
“Global oil demand showed some improvement in 3Q25, growing by roughly 0.9 mmbpd. With slightly stronger GDP growth in 2026, demand growth may gain some support, but we still expect it to remain below 1 mmbpd,” Fitch added.