Kishida Fumio, Japan’s prime minister, stands down
WHEN HE CAMPAIGNED to become Japan’s prime minister, Kishida Fumio laid great stress on his listening skills. They were on display again on August 14th, as he announced that he would not seek re-election as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), heeding the call from voters for fresh leadership. He will step down as prime minister after the party replaces him in late September.
Mr Kishida entered office in October 2021, with Japan battling the covid-19 pandemic. His approval ratings began above 50%; under his leadership the LDP sailed through lower-house elections that autumn and upper-house elections the following summer. But the assassination that summer of Abe Shinzo, a former prime minister, triggered outrage over the party’s links with the Unification Church, a cult-like group. In late 2023 systematic financial shenanigans inside the LDP came to light, deepening the malaise.
Mr Kishida was not directly implicated in the scandals, but he failed to respond effectively, and, combined with nagging frustrations over inflation, they eroded his support. Approval of Mr Kishida’s administration has hovered at around 20% for much of this year; 80% of voters told pollsters they did not want Mr Kishida to continue as prime minister. “It was inevitable he stepped down,” said Kubodera Kensuke, a pensioner in western Tokyo, following the announcement.
The public dissatisfaction belies substantial accomplishments. Mr Kishida served more than three years as prime minister; only seven post-war leaders have lasted longer. He pushed through historic reforms to Japan’s security policies and proved a deft diplomatic operator. Mr Kishida helped to usher in a “new era for the alliance” with America, Rahm Emanuel, America’s ambassador, gushed in tribute. His administration made big investments in semiconductor manufacturing.
Though hardly Mr Kishida’s doing, on his watch Japan shook off deflation and saw stockmarkets boom (and in recent weeks bust); his pick to head the central bank, Ueda Kazuo, has overseen an exit from unconventional monetary policy. Yet Mr Kishida’s attempts to define an agenda of his own, such as his call for a “New Capitalism”, floundered.
By resigning, Mr Kishida hopes to help his party refresh its image ahead of an election that must be held by October 2025. Japan’s opposition is so weak that the LDP is unlikely to lose power. But the party’s popular support has dropped from more than 50% at the start of Mr Kishida’s term to 30%, according to polling by Nikkei, a news organisation. “The first and most obvious step to show that the LDP is changing is for me to step aside,” Mr Kishida said. He did not endorse a successor, but expressed hope that the new president would never lose sight of the need for reform.
The LDP rank-and-file and Diet members who vote for the party leadership could go one of three ways. The first is the traditional one: an experienced party man. Mr Kishida himself occupied this lane during his victorious run in 2021. Motegi Toshimitsu, a former foreign minister and the current LDP secretary-general, would be next in line. Yet more of the same is unlikely to mollify frustrated voters.
The party’s second option is the popular one. Ishiba Shigeru, a veteran MP who has served as defence minister, leads public opinion polls. But with few friends inside the LDP, his previous four attempts at running for party leadership have failed. Kono Taro, the reform-minded current digital minister and former foreign and defence minister, is a star on social media. Yet his reputation as a maverick worries colleagues, and his popularity with the public is down from its peak.
The final option is to try something new. For the fusty LDP, a change candidate could mean a young one or its first female leader. Koizumi Shinjiro, the glamorous 43-year-old son of a popular former prime minister, comes second to Mr Ishiba in public polls. Kobayashi Takayuki, a 49-year-old who served as Mr Kishida’s economic-security minister, could run too.
Post-war Japan has never had a prime minister younger than 50, and skipping a generation would upend the LDP’s seniority-based structure. Takaichi Sanae, a nationalist firebrand, won the most votes among the female candidates in the previous LDP race, but she may be too right-wing to appeal to a general electorate. Kamikawa Yoko, the current foreign minister, could emerge as the compromise choice for party members seeking a safe pair of female hands.
The election will be messy and, with no favourite, an array of candidates may run. The LDP’s leadership has traditionally been decided by faction bosses directing members to vote in blocs, but the recent financial scandal forced many factions to disband. Party bigwigs—in particular Aso Taro and Suga Yoshihide, two short-term former prime ministers—will still exercise significant influence. But there will be more room for MPs to follow their own instincts as to who is best to lead their crisis-stricken party—and thus, the country. ■