Sir Keir Starmer should aim higher in his reset with the EU

IN THE FIVE years since Britain formally left the European Union on January 31st 2020, three things have become clear. One is that Brexit has imposed costs, particularly on goods exports, without any large offsetting benefits. That should worry Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, as she searches for ways to pep up a near-stagnant economy. Second, the geopolitical situation has deteriorated. Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s growing assertiveness and the return of Donald Trump in America all make striking out alone in Europe less appealing. And third, public opinion has switched markedly to the view that Brexit was a mistake, and that if choices must be made it is better to move closer to Europe than to America.

These changes make this an opportune moment for Sir Keir Starmer to re-engage with the EU. Next weekend the prime minister will attend his first informal summit with other European leaders in Brussels, followed by a formal bilateral meeting in the spring. The plan is to open negotiations on what Sir Keir is calling a “reset” in relations. The political momentum should be helpful. Not only has public opinion shifted, but Sir Keir has a big parliamentary majority and he leads a Labour Party that is overwhelmingly pro-European. And there is much scope for improvement. Even the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, has recently admitted that her party never had a coherent plan for Brexit.

And yet Sir Keir’s approach to the EU, as to much else, is marked by a plodding cautiousness. He is sticking firmly to the three red lines laid down in the Labour manifesto: no single market, no customs union and no free movement of people. He has suggested some improvements to the present trade deal, but is vague when it comes to details. This may reflect a genuine desire not to reopen the painfully long years of Brexit debate between 2016 and 2020. But he is also making a political calculation. Sir Keir does not wish to provoke claims from the Conservative opposition and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party that he is trying to overturn the referendum of 2016. Labour strategists are especially worried about the threat from Reform in Labour seats in northern England which voted heavily for Leave.

Sir Keir should be bolder. The Reform party’s rising support is now linked more to immigration than to the EU. Sir Keir could gain the upper hand by reframing Britain's EU debate in terms of hard geopolitical interests. Whether in dealing with Vladimir Putin, or in responding to Mr Trump’s demands for more military spending, or in seeking energy security, European countries, including Britain, are stronger together.

And he should not be ashamed of the economic gains. The trade and co-operation agreement of December 2020 needs bulking up. A veterinary deal would boost food trade in both directions, reduce some of the most sensitive barriers to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and help angry British farmers. A youth-mobility agreement would be good for everyone. There is also scope for closer co-operation over energy and climate-change policy. In general, greater regulatory alignment, including an implicit role for the European Court of Justice, makes sense, not least since half of the UK’s exports still go to the EU. Experts say such a package could raise GDP by as much as 0.7%, a boost Ms Reeves sorely needs.

Even with greater boldness and urgency, the forthcoming talks will not be the end of the story. Switzerland has been negotiating trade arrangements with the EU for over 30 years. Britain may have to accept a similar timetable. It could yet decide that it would be better to be in a customs union, though this would preclude trade deals with third countries (including America). Or it might consider rejoining the single market, at least (also rather like Switzerland) for goods, even if it means payments to the EU budget and freer movement of people. What matters most is not the ultimate destination but the direction of travel—towards, not away from, the EU. ■

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