What is the Islamic State Khorasan Province?
TWO WEEKS before gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall near Moscow, killing at least 137 people, American intelligence warned that “extremists” had “imminent plans” to attack large events in the city. On March 7th Russian security services said they had foiled an attack by Islamic State (IS), a jihadist outfit, on a synagogue in Moscow. So it was little surprise that, hours after the Crocus City attack, the group claimed responsibility. On March 25th four suspects, reportedly from Tajikistan, appeared in court. American officials believe they are part of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). What is this outfit, and what threat does it pose?
ISKP is the Central Asian offshoot of IS, the group that established a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria in 2014. (IS had lost most of the land it controlled there by 2018. Several other offshoots are active in Africa and elsewhere.) Khorasan is a historical area that takes in parts of Iran, Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries (see map). Based mainly in northern and eastern Afghanistan, ISKP is an implacable enemy of the Taliban, an Islamist group that retook control of the country after the departure of American troops in August 2021. ISKP portrays the Taliban as sell-outs for signing a deal with America and co-operating with its withdrawal. It also frequently criticises Tajikistan’s dictator, Emomali Rahmon, an ally of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, in messaging groups because he bans outward displays of Islamic belief.
ISKP seems to have been established in 2014. It attracted disaffected members of the Pakistani Taliban as well as Afghan members, whose regime had been routed by American-backed forces by 2003. The group, which follows Sunni Islam, prides itself on being even less forgiving of non-believers and other Islamic groups—including followers of Shia Islam, the second-largest branch of the faith after Sunnism. Between 2019 and 2021 it claimed responsibility for numerous attacks on mosques, funerals and schools in Afghanistan. During America’s withdrawal from the country it carried out a suicide-bombing at Kabul airport, killing more than 100 people, including 13 American soldiers.
Since July 2022 Afghanistan’s rulers have ordered repeated raids on the group’s hideouts. The number of successful attacks by ISKP in the country has fallen. Experts suggest that the raids may have pushed ISKP to look farther afield. In 2022 the group claimed to have fired rockets at military installations in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In January 2024 it carried out the worst terrorist attack in Iran’s post-revolutionary history, killing more than 100 people at a memorial event for Qassem Soleimani, a military commander assassinated by an American drone in 2020.
ISKP’s recruitment strategies have changed. Roughly 4,000 fighters from Central Asia are believed to have joined IS in Iraq and Syria. After the caliphate’s overthrow, many returned home. ISKP is trying to enlist them. The group’s media operation now uses a range of the region’s languages, from Persian to Uzbek. In 2022 it launched Tajik-language networks on Telegram, through which it promotes its intention to topple Mr Rahmon.
The Crocus City attack is the latest evidence that ISKP is turning its attention beyond Central Asia. In January two of its militants attacked a church in Istanbul, killing one person. German officials said they had recently foiled a planned attack. The Moscow atrocity was preceded by a stream of anti-Russian messages on ISKP channels. Mr Putin’s relationships with the Taliban and with Mr Rahmon make his country a target. ISKP propaganda also cites his brutal wars in Chechnya, a Muslim-majority region in the Caucasus, his intervention in Syria against IS and the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan during the 1980s as evidence that Russia is hostile to Muslims.
Russia’s intelligence agencies may have been too distracted by the war in Ukraine to prevent the attack. Analysts warn that agencies in the West are also strained. The massacre at Crocus City Hall is a bitter reminder that the threat posed by IS remains. ■