Ireland v Scotland: Rugby World Cup – live

As a humble live-blogger trying to keep you all up to date, I’m genuinely a bit scared by those permutations. Here’s Rob Kitson on Scotland’s judgment day:

So, about those permutations. South Africa top Pool B with 15 points, having played all their games. Ireland have 14 points, Scotland 10.

• Any Ireland win will send them through as pool winners.

• Scotland must beat Ireland and deny them a bonus point to finish second on head-to-head record, with South Africa topping the pool.

• If Ireland get a bonus point and Scotland do not, Ireland will top the pool on the head-to-head rule from South Africa.

• A Scotland bonus-point win without Ireland getting anything from the game will see them qualify in second place behind South Africa.

• If Scotland win and both teams get a bonus point, then they all join South Africa on 15 points – and points difference will determine top spot in Pool B.

• Scotland (+97 on points) must win by 21 points or more to claim top spot ahead of South Africa (+117). Ireland (+122) would qualify as runners-up, having beaten South Africa.

• If Scotland do not win by such a margin, then South Africa will finish top on points difference and Scotland second.

• Ireland will guarantee top spot if they secure two points from their match against Scotland.

Indeed I am – apologies, my handle was missing before. Tweet/X me @niallmcveigh.

Stephen Vallely offers a more concise assessment. “The fact that either Scotland or Ireland are likely to go out while that dire England team progress is a joke.”

In defence of England: at this World Cup at least, the display against Samoa was an off-day. I mean, what an off-day, but still. But, to be clear, the draw at this World Cup – made based on rankings back in December 2020 – has clearly diminished the event.

The best four sides in the world – Ireland, France, South Africa and New Zealand – would have made for immense semi-finals, and as the side fifth in the rankings, Scotland should not have to get through three of those four sides just to get to that stage.

Simon McMahon sums up the mood in my inbox: “It was always going to come to this, Niall. Townsend, Ritchie, Russell and the rest, as you’d expect, have been making positive noises in the build up to tonight, but it must be hard for them not to feel at least slightly peeved at the luck of the draw that saw the best Scotland side since 1991 placed in a group with the two best sides in the world.

“Not to mention the fact that some other teams who they are clearly superior to (I’m looking at you, England and Wales) have already progressed to the knockout stage. Still, them’s the breaks I suppose, and if you want to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best at some point. And then face either New Zealand or France in the quarter-final. Talk about doing it the hard way. Good luck Scotland, but I’ll not hold my breath.”

Ugo Monye’s big-match preview is here:

Ireland Hugo Keenan, Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe, Johnny Sexton (c), Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson, Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.

Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Stuart McCloskey.

Scotland Blair Kinghorn, Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ali Price; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Richie Gray, Grant Gilchrist, Jamie Ritchie (c), Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey.

Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, WP Nel, Scott Cummings, Matt Fagerson, Luke Crosbie, George Horne, Ollie Smith.

It’s been a long, winding road to get here but for one of these teams, the World Cup ends tonight. Ever since Scotland lost their opener to South Africa, this date has been circled in red for two teams enjoying golden eras, but all too familiar with heartbreak on the biggest stage.

It’s a great shame that the premature draw has forced three of the world’s top five sides in the same pool, but that’s the reality. Scotland will start as underdogs here but they have refused to fade away after defeat to the Springboks, thumping Tonga 45-17 and Romania 84-0.

As for Ireland, they got the better of a titanic, earth-shaking battle with South Africa and have top spot in Pool B in their hands, having lived up to their status as title contenders. Their reward, should they get the job done tonight? A quarter-final against New Zealand.

This is not quite a straight eliminator – various bonus-point permutations have had fans fretfully crunching numbers this week – but Scotland have to beat Ireland for the first time since 2017 to have a chance. An epic battle awaits in the Stade de France cauldron.