Trump claims big lead over Harris in US election, setting stage if he doesn’t win

Donald Trump and his allies are telling supporters that they’re on pace for a runaway victory barring fraud – setting the stage for outrage and legal challenges if the election doesn’t break in favour of Republicans.

The Republican nominee’s efforts have ramped up in rally speeches since early voting began. By conflating polls and early-voting data, Trump is painting a reality for his faithful where he’s got a clear lead and is on track for a resounding victory over Vice-President Kamala Harris that only malfeasance can derail.

He’s also sowing doubt in the sanctity of the process – amplifying complaints about irregularities in Pennsylvania.

“We’re leading big in the polls, all of the polls,” he said at a rally Thursday in New Mexico, repeating a claim he made earlier in the week in Atlanta, where he implored his supporters to make the vote “too big to rig”. On Wednesday in North Carolina, Trump told a rally that he’s enjoying more enthusiasm this cycle than during his 2016 or 2020 runs, and that he “can’t believe it’s a close race”.

In reality, most polls have the candidates essentially tied, with some models showing a slight Trump advantage. Electoral fraud cases are exceedingly rare and don’t tip the balance. But Trump’s drumbeat of overly rosy projections and warnings about the electoral system set the stage for dispute of the results in the event of a Harris win.