Israel is now fighting Hamas—and the clock
ON DECEMBER 1st Israel embarked on what could be the most crucial stage in its war in Gaza. Its week-long truce with Hamas collapsed early that morning and its forces began to converge on the Islamist movement’s main remaining strongholds throughout the coastal strip. The tactics will be different in this phase but to many watching the mounting Palestinian death toll, that will be of little relevance. Israel is acutely aware that time and support for its offensive in Gaza are running out—and that it has an impossible set of aims to achieve before that happens.
In the northern sector, where Israel was already in control of most of the by-now largely depopulated Gaza city, it launched air-strikes on the Shujaiya neighbourhood and Jabalia refugee camp. Most of Hamas’s remaining fighters in the north are believed to be holed up in those areas. In the south Israel has struck buildings in Khan Younis, the hometown of Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Deif, Hamas’s most senior leaders in Gaza, where both are now believed to be hiding. On December 3rd Israel Defence Forces (IDF) tanks were spotted on the city’s outskirts as its ground offensive, until now mostly limited to the north, seemed to be expanding.
Israel killed over 700 Palestinians in the second day of fighting after the truce ended, the media office of the territory’s Hamas-run government told Al Jazeera. Around 15,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 7th. During the truce Israel allowed over 300 trucks carrying aid to enter Gaza each day; it is letting in nowhere near that now, as before the pause in fighting. Israeli officials say that a plan is in the works to greatly expand the provision of aid (so far this has yet to materialise into anything more concrete).
In private Israeli security officials admit that their country’s armed forces are rushing to operate before its “window of legitimacy” closes. They know that they cannot rely indefinitely on international support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, prompted by Hamas’s massacre of around 1,200 Israelis and abduction of about 250 more on October 7th. This support, led by America, is rapidly eroding in the face of the bloody toll in civilian lives in Gaza. On a visit to Israel on November 30th, Antony Blinken, the American secretary of state, made it clear to the members of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet that they would not have the “months” they say they need to finish the job.
Mr Blinken also said that the administration was watching closely to see whether Israel was doing more to minimise civilian casualties and to facilitate the flow of aid to the over 2m Palestinians now crowded into southern Gaza. Other members of Joe Biden’s administration have since reiterated this point. Whether Israel appears to be meeting these conditions will determine how long—and how full-throatedly—America continues to provide backing for Israel’s offensive.
On the first point Israel announced a new map of Gaza, in which the entire strip had been divided into more than 600 separate zones, as soon as the ceasefire ended. It is ostensibly part of its efforts to limit civilian casualties. Since December 1st residents have been informed, through the media, in text messages and via leaflets dropped from aircraft, both of the zones where the IDF intends to operate and of “safe areas” to which they are expected to evacuate. It is unclear how realistic or effective this system can be in the chaos of Gaza, as a shell-shocked population tries to evade Israel’s ongoing bombardment and deal with Hamas’s attempts to retain control of territory.
The IDF’s operations are also constrained by the presence of what it believes are 136 hostages still being held in Gaza. During the halt in fighting, 108 hostages, mainly Israeli women and children, as well as 24 foreign workers, all captured on October 7th, were set free. The truce collapsed when Israel insisted that the remaining 17 women and children being held should be released before any negotiations about the fate of the male hostages began. But the tension between Israel’s stated war aims—to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and remove it from power in Gaza and and to rescue the hostages—is becoming ever more acute. In a meeting with the hostages’ families, Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defence minister, tried to assure them that “when the military advances, the pressure on Hamas grows and with it the chance of retrieving more hostages.”Far from all are convinced.
The IDF is ever more aware that it is operating under a combination of irreconcilable expectations: of Israel’s politicians and its public, who want it to destroy Hamas; of the hostages’ families, who want their loved ones home; and of its international allies who want fewer Palestinian casualties and an eventual end to this war. If America pushes for a quicker end to the fighting the pressure will grow even further. Meanwhile Hizbullah is once again launching missiles and drones towards northern Israel at a similar rate to before the truce. Israel’s embattled prime minister, whose popularity is plummeting and whose job is being eyed by his rivals in the war cabinet, has sought desperately to avoid making hard choices between Israel’s irreconcilable objectives. But as the tanks rumble into southern Gaza, crunch time looms. ■