Polish protests test Donald Tusk’s support for Ukraine

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has declared himself “the most pro-Ukrainian politician in Europe.”

But when Polish farmers mount a full-scale blockade of the Ukrainian border from Tuesday to protest against cheap imports, Tusk will have no political choice but to let them get on with it.

The actions, which will reach a climax with a tractor march on Warsaw next week, aim to pressure Tusk into alleviating the farmers' dire economic situation. It’s a culmination of individual border blockades that have caused disruptions for weeks and follows a similar action initiated by Polish truckers that ended in mid-January.

Farmers across Europe have taken to the streets this year, many blaming growing imports of Ukrainian grain, poultry and sugar for their woes. And leaders — from Emmanuel Macron in France, to Olaf Scholz in Germany and Giorgia Meloni in Italy — have bowed to their wrath and offered up costly concessions.

Yet nowhere in Europe have the farmers' protests thrown up a greater political challenge than in Poland, as it contends with the spillover effects of Russia's two-year-old war in Ukraine.

On a whistlestop European tour last week to boost foreign ties after his general election victory last October, Tusk told Macron and Scholz that he couldn’t think of a more pro-Ukrainian politician than himself.

Now back home, the 66-year-old premier faces a dilemma: Whether to go all in with his pro-Ukraine message, or give in to the farmers — who enjoy huge public support in Poland but are putting Kyiv on edge.

"The Polish government’s image as the spokesperson and defender of the Ukrainian cause has simply ceased to be credible," said Marek Dąbrowski, a leading political observer and non-resident fellow at the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank. 

"You can't claim to be the leader of the Ukrainian cause in the world and in Europe and at the same time allow such behavior at home."

Picking sides

Ukrainian officials have denounced the repeated border blockades by Polish farmers and truckers, saying they are hurting the economy and the nation's ability to resist Russia's aggression. Farm exports are Kyiv’s only big revenue earner after its chemical and metallurgical industries suffered heavy damage at the start of the war.

The border protests have intensified in recent weeks. Earlier this month, protests stopped three Ukrainian trucks carrying grain destined for Lithuania, spilling some of the cargo. Last week, farmers in Wrocław threw eggs at a sign calling for solidarity with Ukraine.

The Polish government has done little to stop the farmers from directing their frustration at Ukraine. Some officials, such as Deputy Agriculture Minister Michał Kołodziejczak of the populist Agrounia party, have added fuel to the fire, vowing to support the protests no matter what.

Instead of intervening, Tusk is hedging his bets.

He doesn’t want to risk further antagonizing the protesting farmers — not least because 77 percent of Poles support their demands, according to one survey. His government is also a fragile alliance between liberal, left-wing and farmer parties, where any misstep could cost the premier his slim majority.

The prime minister also needs to keep farmers onside if he wants to win regional elections in April at which rural support will be crucial. Victory for Tusk could deal a fatal blow to Jarosław Kaczyński and his Law and Justice party, which is in disarray after being voted out of government last fall.

Tusk’s actions — or lack thereof — are drawing criticism from Kyiv. 

Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi warned at the weekend that his government was considering imposing trade restrictions on Polish imports in retaliation for the border disruptions.

"We are told to be patient, that things will improve after the regional elections," said one Ukrainian official, who was not authorized to speak on the record. 

"But after that there is the European election, and then another election, and another election. When will this stop?"

By allowing border blockades to continue, Tusk and his government are sending exactly the wrong message, according to Dąbrowski from the Bruegel think tank.

“Least of all when Ukraine is at a critical juncture in its confrontation with Russia,” he said.

Shifting sentiments

Failure to act could also have significant consequences for long-term Polish-Ukrainian relations, as Kyiv inches closer to joining the EU.

Tusk himself warned earlier this month that the growing economic conflict could lead to "sudden anti-Ukrainian sentiment” in Poland.

This is not happening yet — but it could very well happen soon, according to Łukasz Adamski, deputy director of the Warsaw-based Mieroszewski Center for Dialogue, which monitors Polish-Ukrainian relations.

“In Poland we already have war weariness,” he said. “There is a growing resentment against Ukrainian refugees, who are blamed for various ills of society, for inflation, for lack of space in kindergartens — and some Poles express these feelings rudely.”

There is still overwhelming political and social support for the Ukrainian cause, he stressed, "but the honeymoon from the beginning of the war is over.”

Negativity is also growing on the Ukrainian side of the border. 

Adamski and his team surveyed public opinion in Ukraine last October and found that 67 percent of Ukrainians viewed Poles positively and only 1 percent negatively.

When the team conducted the same survey in January, three months into the Polish truckers' border blockade, only 44.5 percent of Ukrainians shared the positive sentiment, while the number of those who thought negatively rose to 9 percent.

"The role of Polish politicians should be to take a responsible approach to the issue,” Adamski said.

“To show Ukrainians that the Polish government can function, that laws prohibiting the blocking of borders can be enforced, and that some inevitable clashes of interests do not mean hostility — nor are they a sign that Poland refuses to support Ukraine.” 

On the contrary, he added, “Poland is really doing a lot.”