Nigel Farage on course to secure first ever seat & Reform to win in 13 constituencies, exit poll predicts

NIGEL Farage's Reform is on course for an historic breakthrough -  with the exit poll showing it is on track to take big chunks of the Tory vote. 

The Brexit champion is on the cusp becoming the MP for Clacton after seven failed attempts while Reform is projected to win 13 seats.

Nigel Farage is on course to secure his first ever seat in Parliament
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Nigel Farage is on course to secure his first ever seat in ParliamentCredit: Reuters
Mr Farage’s predicted triumph in Essex came as the Tories faced defeat across the country
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Mr Farage’s predicted triumph in Essex came as the Tories faced defeat across the countryCredit: Steve Finn

If the poll proves to be accurate, it would put them behind Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems but above the SNP, who are predicted to win just 10 seats.

Farage's party is also tipped to win in places like Boston and Skegness, where his predecessor, Richard Tice, is standing, and in Ashfield, where Tory-to-Reform defector Lee Anderson faced dogfight with Labour.

Results for the party’s key targets are due around 4am this morning.

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The Reform effect is also expected to hit Labour-held seats in the North West and the Midlands.

Early forecasts also put Reform well on course to overtake the Lib Dems as the third force in British politics when it comes to votes cast.

The Reform boss had already predicted his party would secure millions of votes but only a handful of parliamentary seats, due to the first-past-the-post voting system which favours the two main parties.

And he has made it clear electoral reform will become central to his party’s post-election campaigning.


Exit poll results

410 Labour
131 Conservatives
13 Reform UK
61 Lib Dem
10 SNP
2 Green Party

Under his leadership, UKIP won 12.6 per cent of the vote in 2015 — but only one seat, in Clacton.

Speaking at his last rally on the eve of the General Election, he warned: “The demand for electoral reform, by this time next week, will be in full cry. It’s coming.”

It is also no secret his sights are set on the next election in five years’ time, as he revealed he plans to challenge to be PM in 2029.

Nigel said success, for him, would be Reform being the catalyst for “a dramatic realignment of the centre-right of British politics”.

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He recently insisted his conscience is clear and the Tories and Rishi Sunak have themselves to blame if Labour wins a landslide.

It was just over a month ago that he announced his shock election bid, which shook up the campaign and threw the Tories into panic.

After swooping in and deposing Mr Tice as Reform’s leader, the chief Brexiteer immediately appeared on Clacton pier to woo local constituents.

His rallies consistently gathered rapturous crowds, with ecstatic supporters mobbing him in the streets every time he visited.

His party started the election campaign polling on just 11 per cent, but surged to overtake the Tories in some pre-election surveys.

Support for the party then wavered when Mr Farage made claims that the West provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ugly racism rows also engulfed his campaign, with the party leader forced to ditch at least 11 candidates in the run up to polling day over their alleged comments.

Farage's rallies consistently gathered rapturous crowds, with ecstatic supporters mobbing him in the streets
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Farage's rallies consistently gathered rapturous crowds, with ecstatic supporters mobbing him in the streetsCredit: Reuters

Mr Farage was targeted by activists twice on the campaign trail — once when an OnlyFans model threw a milkshake in his face, and again when a trade unionist lobbed coffee cups at his battlebus.

He also ignited a row with the BBC over what he said was an unrepresentative Question Time audience.

He pledged to campaign for the abolition of the licence fee from day one if he became an MP.

The former MEP has long aimed to smash up the status quo in British politics, and will hope to use Westminster as a platform — just as he used the European Parliament to attack the EU.

Speaking to his prospective constituents in Clacton early in the campaign, he promised to “be a bloody nuisance”, adding: “You won’t get any woke, PC, nonsense from me.”

Key timings to watch

12.15am

Tory chairman Richard Holden could be the first big beast to lose in his Basildon and Billericay seat

2am

Tory leadership fave Kemi Badenoch is expected to win her new seat of Essex North West

2.45am

Deputy PM Oliver Dowden is fighting to hang on in Hertsmere

3am

Jeremy Corbyn could lose the Islington North seat he has held for 40 years

3.30am

Penny Mordaunt’s Portsmouth North seat is facing an onslaught from Labour and could turn red

3.30am

Jeremy Hunt could become the first sitting Chancellor to be ousted as the Lib Dems eye his Godalming and Ash seat

4am

Nigel Farage will learn whether his eight shot at Parliament is successful in Clacton

4am

Rishi Sunak should win his Yorkshire seat of Richmond and Northallerton - where he might concede the election to Labour

4am

Reform chairman Richard Tice is hoping for victory in Boston and Skegness - the biggest Brexit-voting seat

4.15am

Sir Keir Starmer will comfortably win in Holborn and St Pancras and will be the first time we hear from him

5am

Former PM Liz Truss will learn if she has hung on to Norfolk South West where she is defending a 24,000 majorit

He is set to campaign hard for Reform’s four-point plan on immigration, which includes quitting the Strasbourg court, enforcing a zero-tolerance policy on illegal immigration, creating a new Department of Immigration and returning small boat Channel migrants.

Reform has also pledged to abandon Net Zero targets and introduce a “patriotic curriculum” in schools, which would pair the teaching of Britain’s history of slavery with similar events from non-European contexts to “ensure balance”.

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Meanwhile, Reform’s economic policies include increasing the income tax threshold to £20,000, up from £12,571, which they say will lift millions of lower-paid workers out of paying tax altogether.

The party also wants to raise the top 40p tax rate starting point to £70,000, up from £50,000.

The Reform Party surged to overtake the Tories in some pre-election surveys
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The Reform Party surged to overtake the Tories in some pre-election surveysCredit: Twitter/@Nigel_Farage
Nigel recently insisted his conscience is clear and the Tories and Rishi Sunak have themselves to blame if Labour wins a landslide
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Nigel recently insisted his conscience is clear and the Tories and Rishi Sunak have themselves to blame if Labour wins a landslideCredit: AFP