America steps up bombing the Houthis but lacks a clear strategy

WHEN America started bombing the Houthis on March 15th, your correspondent messaged a diplomat: was this déjà vu or something new? The group, a Shia militia in Yemen, has been bombed so many times by so many people that the diplomat needed clarification. Déjà vu from when Joe Biden bombed them last year? From when Israel did so months later? Or from when a Saudi-led coalition began bombing almost a decade earlier?

The Houthis have controlled a big swathe of Yemen since 2014. More than two-thirds of the country’s 40m people live under their rule. In November 2023 the group began to attack commercial ships in the Red Sea. This was billed as a show of solidarity with Gazans living under Israeli bombardment. In practice it has been a propaganda effort: piracy has done little to help Palestinians, but it has helped the Houthis cement their contested rule.

The attacks led Mr Biden to authorise a campaign of air strikes in January 2024. It was a pinprick effort. Weeks or months would elapse between sorties. The operation was paused in January 2025 after Israel agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza, which led the Houthis to halt their own attacks.

Despite months of quiet, though, shippers remain nervous about sailing through the Red Sea. Transits through the Bab al-Mandab strait are still down by half compared with early 2023.

With the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire last month, firms worry that the Houthis will restart their campaign. The group has already announced a renewed “blockade” on some commercial ships in the Red Sea and resumed firing missiles at Israel. All of this led Donald Trump, America’s president, to launch his own round of air strikes. It has been a more concerted effort than Mr Biden’s: America has bombed Yemen every day since March 15th.

The Pentagon has said little about what it has struck, but Yemen-watchers have put together a patchy picture. Some of the targets, like Mr Biden’s, have been military sites: radar stations, missile-storage depots and the like. Other objectives are new. America has repeatedly bombed Saada, the northerly governorate from which the Houthi movement emerged in the 1990s (see map). It has also taken aim at mid-level Houthi commanders. Mohammad al-Basha, a Yemeni analyst in Washington, counts at least 19 dead officers at the rank of major or above.

Advocates for the bombing campaign hope it will reopen the Red Sea. That is a worthy goal but hard to achieve. Shippers say they are not reassured by the recent strikes. In fact, some are now more nervous about passing through the waterway.

The Houthis are unlikely to announce a unilateral halt to their attacks, even under heavy bombardment. They have fought for decades against the Yemeni state, a Saudi-led coalition, and now America and Israel, which itself has carried out retaliatory strikes in Yemen.

America may hope to destroy enough of the Houthi arsenal that the group can no longer carry out attacks. As long as it controls Yemen’s Red Sea coast, however, it will seem a menace: even the occasional missile aimed at a passing vessel would keep shippers uneasy. “People are underestimating the Houthis,” says one Western military officer in the region. “I doubt much thinking has gone into anything other than an air campaign.”

Not even the most hawkish of Mr Trump’s advisers have argued for sending troops to Yemen. A more palatable option, which already has the backing of Saudi Arabia, might be to support a coalition of anti-Houthi militias. Some of America’s strikes appear intended to help those forces. It has bombed provinces like Marib and al-Jawf, on the edge of Houthi-controlled territory, where the group’s hold on power is tenuous.

America is also pushing allies to block the flow of arms from Iran, which sponsors the Houthis. Mr Trump has suggested he might strike Iran itself if it does not stop.

As the fighting escalates, however, so do the risks. In that now-infamous group chat discussing the battle plan, J.D. Vance, the vice-president, was the only official to show concern for American allies. “If there are things we can do upfront to minimise risk to Saudi oil facilities we should do it,” he wrote. The Saudis worry that the Houthis might resume cross-border missile strikes. They tried unsuccessfully for years to remove the Houthis from power—and fear America may fare little better. ■

Sign up to the Analysing Africa, a weekly newsletter that keeps you in the loop about the world’s youngest—and least understood—continent.