The Conservatives suffered disastrous results in Wales, but experts have warned that challenging times lie ahead for Welsh Labour under Keir Starmer.
Among the poor results for the Tories was the loss of the Vale of Glamorgan, where the former Welsh secretary Alun Cairns was beaten by Labour. Labour regained Bridgend in south Wales and Wrexham in the north from the Tories, while Plaid Cymru took Ynys Môn (Anglesey).
Reform UK came second in places including Swansea West and Pontypridd in south Wales, giving the party a foothold in Wales ahead of the 2026 Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections.
The leader of the Tories in the Senedd, Andrew RT Davies, expressed anger at the timing of the election, posting on X: “Let’s be frank: we’ve let a lot of people down.”
Tomos Dafydd Davies, the chair of the party in Wales, suggested the party needed to develop a “robust brand” of its own in Wales ahead of the 2026 elections.
Though Wales has long been a Labour stronghold, the Tories did well there in 2019, winning 14 of the 40 seats. Labour took 22 and Plaid Cymru four.
This time the number of seats being contested was down to 32 and a combination of Tory unpopularity plus a rocky campaign in Wales saw them facing a possible wipeout.
The Tory fight in Wales got off to a poor start in the Vale of Glamorgan when Rishi Sunak blundered by asking staff at a brewery if they were looking forward to Euro 24, apparently not realising or forgetting that Wales had not qualified for the tournament.
Worse was to come when Sunak’s close aide and the party’s candidate for the mid-Wales seat of Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, Craig Williams, was the first to become embroiled in the scandal over bets placed on the date of the election.
But the election hasn’t been all good news for Welsh Labour. Its vote share was down in a number of places, perhaps a sign that the controversies swirling around the Welsh first minister, Vaughan Gething, were cutting through to voters. Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at Cardiff University, said: “The saga refuses to go away.”
McAllister said the most fundamental issue now facing Welsh Labour in Waleswas that its tactic of blaming the UK government for its woes would no longer work – and money is not expected to flow into Wales from the Treasury.
She said: “It’s no longer the case that the Welsh Labour government can blame a cruel Conservative government in Westminster for refusing to give Wales a fair funding settlement, because it will be its own party in charge.
“I think that will cause quite a lot of tension, because we know the financial envelope won’t be expanded and there will be very little funding available for Wales. I think that will be an enormous pressure point and one that could be politically incendiary.”
It has been a good campaign for Plaid Cymru. Its leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has impressed and raised his profile in Wales and across the UK, which bodes well for his party’s chances in the 2026 elections.
Analysts and commentators will be poring over the performance of Reform UK, which could benefit in 2026 in Wales from the enlargement of the Senedd from 60 seats to 96 and the introduction of a system of proportional representation. Nigel Farage launched his party’s manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil, south Wales, a sign that he believes the country could be fertile ground.
Sam Blaxland, who has just published a book studying the Tories in Wales, said: “The Labour vote isn’t necessarily skyrocketing. Reform are eating into the Conservative vote, and we shouldn’t be surprised that they’re doing this in Wales; this is a part of the UK that had a good number of Ukip members of the Senedd and voted for Brexit. There is a populist, right-wing vote up for grabs in some areas and that’s where some Conservative voters have gone.”