Why so much is riding on Poland’s presidential elections

FANS OF POLAND’S main opposition party, the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS), called it a PR coup big enough to swing the country’s presidential election. Two weeks ahead of the vote, set for May 18th, Karol Nawrocki, the PiS-backed candidate, surfaced alongside Donald Trump in the White House for a photo op. “You will win,” Mr Trump told him, according to Mr Nawrocki.

The blessing could be a curse in disguise. Polish attitudes towards Mr Trump, and towards America more generally, are changing dramatically. A study published three months into Mr Trump’s presidency revealed that only 31% of Poles are happy with the state of their country’s relations with America, a drop of 49 percentage points since 2023. Poland has long been one of the most staunchly pro-American countries in the European Union. It may be no more. The share of Poles who have a positive view of America, the same study suggests, is the lowest on record.

Mr Nawrocki’s poll numbers barely budged after his visit to Washington. They dipped days later, amid claims, which he denies, that he once defrauded an elderly pensioner. Mr Nawrocki trails behind Rafal Trzaskowski, the Warsaw mayor backed by Civic Coalition (KO), the party at the head of Poland’s ruling alliance. Slawomir Mentzen, of Konfederacja, a hard-right party that unites MAGA types, libertarians and Eurosceptics, is expected to come third. A gaggle of ten other candidates follow. In so crowded a field, neither Mr Trzaskowski nor Mr Nawrocki has a chance to clear the 50% needed to win outright in the first round. The two are thus expected to meet in a run-off on June 1st.

Power in Poland rests primarily with the prime minister and parliament. But the president wields real influence by signing laws into force, or vetoing them, appointing judges and ambassadors, and helping to shape foreign policy. Presidents can rarely impose their own agenda, but they can certainly frustrate the government’s.

Just ask the current one. Donald Tusk, the prime minister and KO leader, whose coalition came to power in 2023, has repeatedly locked horns with the incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, now in his second and last term. Mr Duda, who remains close to PiS, has blocked some two dozen laws passed by the new parliament, vetoing some and sending others to the constitutional court for review.

Mr Trzaskowski’s win would end the impasse, allowing Mr Tusk and his coalition to move ahead with many of the changes Mr Duda opposes. These include a reform of the courts, packed with judges appointed under the previous PiS government through a flawed and politicised procedure, and an overhaul of the public media, which PiS had turned into a propaganda machine (PiS accuses the KO of doing the same). Mr Trzaskowski also pledges to back plans to ease the country’s abortion ban, championed by PiS and imposed in 2020 by the constitutional court.

But there is only so much he would be able to do. The coalition over which Mr Tusk presides, which includes conservatives, liberals, leftists and greens, remains divided on the abortion ban, as well as over issues such as same-sex unions, housing and state funding for the Catholic church. Many of Mr Tusk’s campaign promises remain unkept. That helps explain why only 39% of Poles view his government favourably. Having a political rival as president has helped the government mask those divisions. Having an ally in office may not make them go away.

To appreciate just how much is at stake in the election, set aside the idea of a Trzaskowski presidency and consider the opposite. A win for Mr Nawrocki would be a major, and possibly a fatal, blow to the government, setting PiS on a course to victory in the 2027 elections to parliament. Mr Tusk’s coalition could start to crumble; partners like the agrarian Polish People’s Party could jump ship. “This would call Tusk’s entire project into question,” says Piotr Buras of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It might be the beginning of the end.”

Even if such fears were to prove misplaced, politics would get nasty. For Mr Tusk, cohabitation with Mr Duda, who was prepared to break with PiS on a number of important issues, has been hard, but manageable. The same would probably not be true if Mr Nawrocki wins. “We would have PiS and Konfederacja breathing down our necks, and smelling blood,” says an official. “Nawrocki would enter as a bulldozer, someone who’s supposed to clear the path for a new PiS government,” says Andrzej Bobinski of Polityka Insight, a think-tank. “He’s a completely different partner.”

Neither of the two main candidates has a straight road to victory. A strong showing for Konfederacja’s Mr Mentzen could prompt both Mr Trzaskowski and Mr Nawrocki to pander to his party, possibly by promising to get tough on migrants and refugees, ahead of the run-off.

Politics in Poland for the past couple of decades has become a contest between right-leaning parties, whether moderate, religious, nationalist or extreme. That is not about to change soon. But Poles on May 18th will have a real choice, between staying the course or handing the country back to the populists. ■

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