BERLIN — During a visit to Washington this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is likely to find that Donald Trump — conjuring Europe’s grimmest strategic nightmare — has already returned.
Scholz arrives just as Republicans in Congress, acting at Trump’s behest, are blocking military aid for Ukraine, imperilling the fate of the embattled country.
The Washington setback comes as Ukraine’s frontline troops complain of ammunition shortages, and as Russian forces make a major push to capture the shattered ruins of the city of Avdiivka.
It’s a particularly grim scenario for the Germans, who fear they will now be on the hook as Kyiv’s main champion — a role they never wanted, preferring the part of Washington’s sidekick.
“The discussions between the House of Representatives and the Senate on funding support for Ukraine is of course a topic that we are following particularly closely,” a senior German government official said ahead of Scholz’s trip.
That, to put it mildly, is an understatement. Since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago, the U.S. has been the largest provider of military aid to Kyiv by a wide margin. With that support now on hold, and little assurance it will resume soon, the world has been upended for Ukraine’s European allies.
Scholz and President Joe Biden, who are known to have a good rapport, plan to meet one-on-one at the White House for about an hour on Friday, according to a German government source.
“There is a strong relationship of trust between the two of them,” a senior German official said.
Scholz is likely to leverage that connection to get Biden to tell him how likely it is that Congress will ultimately approve billions in new aid to Ukraine.
The answer isn’t expected to please the German leader.
Ironic inversion
For the two leaders, the irony will be wearily apparent. At the outset of the war it was Scholz who took his lead from Biden. Germany was the main laggard on providing military aid to Ukraine — and it was Biden who pushed Scholz’s government to do much more. At the time, the Germans, fearful of being drawn into a spiraling conflict with Putin, refused to send heavy arms to Ukraine until the Americans and other NATO allies did so first.
That dynamic hasn’t entirely disappeared. Despite repeated requests from Ukraine, Scholz has thus far refused to provide Ukraine with Taurus long-range cruise missiles, fearful the Ukrainians could use them to attack targets in Russia. The U.K. and France, meanwhile, have provided cruise missiles.
Now the burden is increasingly on Scholz to take the lead. Germany is second only to the U.S. in providing military aid to Ukraine, having given €17.1 billion in assistance through October of last year, according to a tally by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The U.K., by contrast, has provided €6.57 billion, while France has contributed a mere €0.54 billion.
In light of those numbers, Scholz has been pushing European nations to provide more aid to Ukraine, and has also voiced irritation that Germany hasn’t shaken its reputation as a ditherer on Ukraine despite the help it has provided.
“I’m irritated over the constant criticism Germany faces because the government is supposedly not doing enough and is too reluctant to act,” he said in an interview with German weekly Die Zeit. “We’ve done more than any other EU country — a lot more. That’s why I’m on the phone a lot asking my counterparts to do more.”
The question is whether U.S. and European voters will support that aim, especially as the war drags on. The share of Americans who say the government is giving too much support to Ukraine has grown steadily since the February 2022 invasion, according to the Pew Research Center, with about half of Republicans now saying the U.S. is giving too much to Kyiv.
In Germany, too, the public is ambivalent about stepping in to fill the void. Only 38 percent of Germans would like to see stronger engagement from Germany on the world stage, according to a Körber Foundation survey.
Meanwhile, even if Germany and other European countries were able to sharply increase their Ukraine spending, Europe now lacks the capacity to produce the ammunition the country needs.
The EU is revving up its ammunition production and has pledged to send 1.1 million shells to Ukraine by year’s end; the EU’s production capacity should rise to 2 million rounds in 2025.
While those numbers would be significant, timing is of the essence. The EU had originally sought to get Ukraine 1 million shells by March, but its manufacturers fell miles short of the target.
“If you ask a soldier at the front what he needs most now, the answer will be shells,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said Wednesday during a visit to Kyiv from Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat.
Germany and Europe have a lot more riding on Ukraine’s survival than the U.S. does. For the Europeans, a Ukrainian defeat could be disastrous for the Continent’s security.
European leaders fear that if Putin wins in Ukraine and Trump returns to the presidency, countries like Latvia or Moldova might be next.
Discussing that prospect, a senior European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, recently told POLITICO and other media outlets: “These are the things that keep me up at night.”