Iran bombards Israel as the war escalates further
Editor’s note (October 1st 2024): This story was updated to take in the most recent developments.
After days of rocket and missile exchanges between Israel and Hizbullah, on October 1st the confrontation took an even more ominous turn, in two ways: Iran launched direct missile attacks on Israel, as Israel unleashed a ground invasion of Lebanon. The full-blown regional war that many have feared ever since the attacks of October 7th 2023 now looks closer than ever. One possibility is that Israel now responds with air strikes on Iran, perhaps targeting the facilities used for its nuclear programme, a highest-stakes mission that Israel has been planning for two decades.
The missile attacks by Iran began on the evening of October 1st, following warnings by the American government and by the Israeli authorities. In Tel Aviv and Jerusalem people crowded into shelters. Iran’s earlier missile attack in April, involving over 300 projectiles, failed as they were intercepted by air-defence systems and American and Israeli warplanes. Both Israel and America confirmed that Iran had this time fired around 200 ballistic missiles. A Gazan man was killed in the West Bank city of Jericho when a fragment of one of the missiles fell on him. No other deaths were reported. “Based on what we know at this point, this attack appears to have been defeated,” said Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to Joe Biden.
Still, the Iranian attack has a significance that goes far beyond potential Israeli casualties. Many within Israel’s political and security establishment believe there is a moment to transform the strategic picture in the region, given the weakness of Iran’s proxies. It is even possible that the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s leader, along with a senior Iranian general, in Beirut on September 27th, was designed to provoke Iran, luring it into a strategic trap. Either way the Iranian strike, they argue, gives Israel the justification to deal with Iran’s nuclear threat.
Key to this assessment is that the calculus has improved for Israel. One element of Iran’s failed attack in April is that it revealed its vulnerabilities. Israel chose to avoid a full-scale retaliation but three days later destroyed a key Iranian air-defence radar. That is now being taken as evidence that Iran’s defences are vulnerable to the Israeli air force. Meanwhile a long-standing argument against an attack was that Iran would respond by pushing Hizbullah to fire on Israel. Now with Hizbullah reeling and Israel already on a war footing, that seems less of a problem.
Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, in the past tried and failed to convince Israel’s generals of the strategic value of a strike on Iran. Today he may have persuaded them of its merits. Israeli hawks also believe that Mr Biden, near the end of his term, will give his backing and perhaps even join in a campaign which could severely degrade Iran’s nuclear programme and damage the standing of the theocrats and military hardmen who lead the Islamic Republic’s unpopular regime.
The first Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon late on September 30th were tiny. The soldiers had advanced only “walking distance from the border”, an officer says. These “raids” aimed to destroy missile-launchers and other military infrastructure used by Hizbullah, the Iranian-backed militia that has been bombarding northern Israel. So far, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have not called up the number of reservists needed for a full-scale invasion. Only a single division is involved in the incursions—a third of the force that invaded Gaza almost a year ago.
One possibility that Israeli officials mention in private is the creation of a buffer-zone a few kilometres wide along the border to reassure Israelis that it is safe to return to their homes. Israel’s official aim is to create the conditions for the return of over 60,000 of its citizens who were forced to evacuate when Hizbullah began shelling northern Israel on October 8th last year.
Yet Israeli incursions into Lebanon have a way of becoming full-blown invasions quickly. Warnings in Arabic by the IDF to residents of over 20 villages, some over 20km from Israel, to evacuate immediately, are a clear indication that Israel has grander plans. So far no clashes between the IDF and Hizbullah have been reported on the ground, but these are only a matter of time. Although many Hizbullah fighters have withdrawn northwards to escape Israeli air strikes, Israeli intelligence believes some 2,000 of the elite “Radwan” force remain near the border.
Any fighting would be intense. Some Hizbullah troops have fought in Syria’s civil war, in which Hizbullah propped up Bashar al Assad’s murderous regime. They also know the terrain which is rocky and mountainous, providing lots of spots for ambushes. The IDF troops entering Lebanon are also hardened by a year’s fighting in Gaza. Israel’s fighter-jets, attack helicopters and surveillance drones provide close cover from the air. Israel has penetrated and disrupted Hizbullah’s communication networks, as it showed in mid-September when it detonated thousands of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hizbullah members.
As long as the Israeli operation remains close to the border, it seems to have America’s support. The operation “is in line with Israel’s right to defend its citizens and safely return civilians to their homes”, a spokesperson for the White House said. “We support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah and all Iranian-backed terror groups.” However, the spokesperson warned also of “mission creep”.
Some Israelis are wary of the enthusiasm of Mr Netanyahu and his far-right coalition to take the fight to Hizbullah. “Lebanon is a vortex that has swept us in before,” warns Tamir Hayman, a former IDF general and the head of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Israel needs to make its objectives clear in Lebanon and set out what kind of ceasefire it will be willing to accept with Hizbullah. Things have so far been going well against Hizbullah, but the potential for disaster in Lebanon is great.” A high-risk invasion is now taking place alongside an even higher-risk direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, raising the stakes for Israel—and the entire Middle East. ■