A Faustian pact with the Houthis
Over the course of seven weeks Donald Trump, America’s president, bombed the Houthis, Yemeni rebels backed by Iran, over a thousand times. That was twice the number of strikes his predecessor launched in over a year. Then, unexpectedly, the bombing stopped. On May 6th, in a press conference with Canada’s prime minister, Mr Trump casually mentioned that he had landed a deal with the Houthis. “We will stop the bombings,” he explained, in return for a cessation of Houthi attacks on shipping. “Freedom of navigation for international commercial shipping in the Red Sea,” tweeted the Omani foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, who brokered the agreement, soon after.
Many things explain Mr Trump’s change of course. The cost of the campaign, estimated to be $1bn, was heavy. The attacks had failed to deter the Houthis. And they threatened to fuel conflict just as the president was heading to the Middle East to promote peace. The Iranians had suspended negotiations about their nuclear programme after Pete Hegseth, the American secretary of defence, warned Iran that it would “pay” for its “lethal support” of the Houthis. On May 4th one of the Houthis’ missiles pierced Israel’s defences and struck the outskirts of its main airport in Tel Aviv. In response Israel destroyed Hodeidah, a Yemeni port, the capital’s airport, three civilian aircraft and two big cement plants. The old Middle East, pitting America and Israel against Iran and its proxies, seemed to be back.
The immediate beneficiary of the apparent détente is Iran. Having parked the Houthi problem, Mr Trump looks closer than ever to a deal with the ayatollahs. Iran quickly declared it would resume a fourth round of talks within days. A draft agreement is said to be circulating that could see the Islamic Republic and America restore diplomatic relations after 45 years. If that materialises, technical teams would finalise a deal that lets Iran enrich uranium to low levels in perpetuity. Ahead of his trip to the Gulf on May 13th, Mr Trump has already let slip that “a very, very big announcement” is coming. “Things are moving very fast,” says an observer in touch with both the Iranians and the Americans.
The Houthis are also crowing. Mr Trump said they had capitulated. The rebels insist America beat a retreat. America’s strikes have damaged but not eliminated the Houthis’ long-range missile arsenal. They remain Yemen’s most powerful force. The leaders of Hamas and Hizbullah, the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, have fallen; Abdel-Malik al-Houthi is its last man standing. “We didn’t expect Trump would surrender to the Houthis and hand them a victory for free,” says Abdul-Ghani al-Iryani, a Yemen analyst.
Others are counting their losses. The deal leaves 25m Yemenis under the Houthis’ yoke. A decade of air strikes that began with the Saudis has crippled infrastructure. The Houthis tax heavily, but show scant interest in service-delivery. Instead they focus on bolstering their forces, tightening their grip and indoctrinating the population with religious dogma and hate speech. “They’re worse than the Taliban,” says a Yemeni visitor to Sana’a, the capital.
The Houthis’ Yemeni rivals are smarting, too. Some had hoped that under American pressure the group might at last accede to a power-sharing agreement and let the internationally recognised government return to the capital. Others hoped to exploit American mission creep and relaunch a ground assault. Now they fear it could be the Houthis who advance. None of Yemen’s other forces can match the rebel group. Their force has grown 12-fold to 350,000 since 2015, according to the un, a year after they seized Sana’a. And unlike their Yemeni opponents, they are disciplined and battle-ready. Prepare for Houthi attacks on the oilfields near Marib and Shabwa, say Yemen-watchers.
Most surprising is Mr Trump’s abandonment of Israel. He launched his campaign in March when the Houthis resumed their attacks on Israel. But the deal does nothing to constrain Houthi strikes against America’s ally. The Houthis say they will continue firing at Israel as long as Israel maintains its blockade of Gaza. It might be a sign of Mr Trump’s frustration with Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu or of his determination to secure a deal with Iran. Either way, Israel seems unusually out of the loop. ■
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