Why Biden standing down might be the best way to beat Trump
This was seen in the ragtag storming of the US Capitol Building on January 6, 2021, which fortunately showed the US political system was strong enough to resist even a president’s undemocratic leanings.
Trump showed no leadership or judgment during his time as president. He is unfit for public office following his convictions for falsifying business records, for which he will likely not be sentenced for.
The power of the presidential position is immense in the US, despite the checks and balances of the country’s Supreme Court and Congress. Trump has indicated that his revenge, if in office, will be motivated by a spirit of vindictiveness in targeting those who oppose him.
Former US president Donald Trump waves at a campaign rally in Chesapeake, Virginia on June 28. Photo: AP
The world needs a successful America to prosper. For all its faults, a strong US that focuses on its first love of economic growth led by a president with good judgment and democratic instincts is critical to our future prosperity in Hong Kong. A younger Biden was that person, but he is that no more. It is incumbent on the Democratic Party to present a new and electable ticket in the next few weeks.
The fallout from the debate has exposed three new scenarios which have implications for the economies of mainland China and Hong Kong. The first is that if Biden continues to be the nominee, he will not win the presidential election. The 2020 election was close enough as it is. A politically wounded president running a weak campaign increases the chances of a Democratic defeat.
A Trump victory would not be good for China and Hong Kong. Trump has used the demonisation of China as a lightning conductor for domestic Republican Party politics, along with criticising Biden’s gun control measures and defending the Supreme Court’s overturning of abortion rights.
The best hope in this scenario is that China-US trade is maintained at current levels. China’s economy would become more domestically focused, driven by the need for self-sufficiency. China’s exports will have to rise up the value chain, where cheap plentiful exports will be replaced with expensive quality goods that can bear the load of extra trade tariffs.
A worker assembles an electric vehicle at a car plant in Changzhou, Jiangsu province on March 27. Photo: AP
Yet the theory of comparative advantage says that China can’t be good at everything. Global trade will continue to be critical to China, and this will support Hong Kong’s natural trading role. On the other hand, global political disruption would further damage global trade, hurting Hong Kong. Trump is likely to disrupt the geopolitical landscape.
If he stops military support for Ukraine, he might embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to make more mischief in the Middle East, tying up the US there. The only bright spot is that the US dollar might remain strong, which is good for our Hong Kong dollar.
The second scenario is that Biden makes the key decision that only he can make – retiring from the whole ticket, as well as dumping his hapless running mate, US Vice-President Kamala Harris.
The dangers for the Democrats are real and binary, as they may end up with a weak candidate who is trounced by Trump. For Hong Kong, Trump’s election under this scenario would be worse. He would have a stronger mandate to pursue restrictive trade policies and narrow-minded nationalism, as well as be more aggressive militarily for he is a bully.
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What if Trump wins?
What if Trump wins?
A Biden withdrawal initially gives Trump the advantages of being the clear front runner so the Democrats are right to fear a change of candidate. However, in grasping that nettle, they have a high chance of selecting a young, vigorous and populist campaigner attractive to the electoral middle ground.
This would expose Trump as an embittered old man. The best scenario for Hong Kong is for America to have a politically middle-of-the-road president, likely to be a Democrat at present, who can work with peer nations like China to deal with the severe problems that will arise in the second half of this decade.
Biden has spent half a century in national politics. It’s been a good run as a US senator for 36 years, vice-president for eight years and president for four. He lost his first wife in a car accident at 30 and his eldest son at 72. His other son is facing a jail sentence for buying a gun after a grief-fuelled binge.
If he makes a decision to retire, it will be based on the perspective and persuasion of US First Lady Jill Biden. The huge ramifications that the US election will bring to Hong Kong’s future prosperity may well depend on pillow talk at home.
Dr Richard Harris is chief executive of Port Shelter and is a veteran investment specialist, writer and broadcaster, and financial expert witness
