Tunisia to vote for president as the incumbent consolidates power

The vote, opposition members and election observers say, could be the last gasp of democracy in the North African nation whose mass protests in 2011 inspired similar democratic movements across the Middle East. As other countries in the region descended into chaos or suffered military coups, Tunisia appeared to emerge from its revolt relatively unscathed. But since then, it has lurched toward autocracy, sometimes with popular support as Tunisians grappled with an economic crisis they felt only a strong leader could solve.

“If you just look at the broad form of it, it appears to be a normal, potentially democratic election,” Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, said of the vote Sunday. “But once you start to peel the layers off, it becomes very clear that this election is nowhere close to free or fair.”

“This election really spells the end of Tunisia’s democratic transition,” Yerkes said.

Who’s running for president in Tunisia?

Tunisian voters elected Saied, a former constitutional law professor, in a landslide in 2019, a vote that was widely viewed as repudiation of the political system and parties that dominated post-Arab Spring. But, within two years, he had already set the country on a path that would reverse a decade of democratic gains.

In July 2021, Saied launched what his critics have called a “self coup,” firing his prime minister, suspending parliament and declaring the right to rule by decree. The next year, he further consolidated control, including by pushing through a new constitution that undid judicial independence and weakened the legislative branch. But in that referendum, voter turnout plummeted, signaling widespread apathy.

Now, he is seeking a second five-year term and, with much of Tunisia’s political power in his hands, is facing few obstacles.

Dozens of candidates expressed interest in running — and 17 officially submitted documents to the country’s elections commission, whose independence Saied gutted in 2022.

“In the end, everyone who tried to run has been disqualified or thrown in jail, or both,” with the exception of one candidate, Yerkes said. A third person, Ayyachi Zammel, was cleared to run but has since been detained. Some were disqualified for failing to meet certain criteria, and at least seven said they weren’t able to obtain the necessary documents from Tunisia’s Interior Ministry, Reuters reported.

The election commission — or Independent High Authority for Elections — did not respond to requests for comment.

“It’s not really a contest,” said Yerkes.

Authorities have jailed opposition figures, including some with heavy sentences. Last year, Tunisian security forces arrested the leader of the main opposition party, Rachid Ghannouchi, on charges of receiving foreign funding and sentenced him to three years in prison.

Ayachi Zammel of the opposition Azimoun party is also in jail, facing accusations he falsified documents, according to one of his lawyers. Zammel has denied the allegations.

Fawzi Jaballah, a member of the legal committee defending Zammel, said dissenters in Tunisia are facing “heavy accusations … just because they have a different political opinion.”

Zammel was a relatively little-known candidate before his arrest. But, as Chahed Bouzidi, 49, a resident of Tunisia’s Sidi Bouzid, put it: “The president made candidate Ayachi Zammal famous when he decided to put him in jail.” Bouzidi said he plans to vote for Zammel because, for supporters of the opposition, he “represent[s] the only open road, while the president is blocking all the other roads.”

Mahmoud Ben Mabrouk, the general coordinator of the election campaign of Saied, said the president has “made many good decisions for Tunisian people when he cut the ties with the old systems.”

He said arrested candidates were not able to get enough nominations, falsified and paid for nominations. “Kais Saied didn’t put anyone in jail but there are people who went to complain in the police station and they simply said our ID were used to nominate a candidate without our consent,” he said.

“People have gained the liberty of expression but they used it in the wrong way, through indecent assaults and defamation, these practices are illegal and law can sanction those people for what they are saying,” Mabrouk said, adding that there is still freedom of expression as evidenced by recent protests.

Zouhair Maghzaoui, a veteran politician and former ally of Saied, is also running and has been holding campaign rallies. He once supported Saied’s power grab but later became more critical of the president.

Saied came into office promising to clean up corruption and improve the lives of ordinary people, but Tunisia’s economy is still suffering from slow growth and inflation. He has also faced criticism for espousing xenophobic views and policies targeting sub-Saharan migrants.

Mounir Laadouli, 43, a farmer in a southern suburb of Tunis, said he will still likely vote for Saied on Sunday. “I have hope that he will make a change … Officials of the public sector are working more seriously because they fear the president will sack him.”

What’s different about this election?

This election is “drastically different” from Tunisia’s previous two elections, which were deemed fair by independent observers, said Yerkes.

More than 170 people are now detained on “political grounds or for exercising their fundamental rights” — most of whom are members of Ghannouchi’s Islamist Ennahda party, once the largest in parliament, Human Rights Watch said Friday.

Just over a week ago, Tunisia’s parliament changed the country’s electoral law, stripping the power administrative courts had over the election commission. Saied had already appointed most of the commission’s members.

“He’s a constitutional law professor. He operates using legal — with legal in quotes — means,” Yerkes said of the president.

“It’s fair to say, ‘Yeah, he disqualified someone based on a Tunisian law — but it’s a law that he wrote … these are laws that either he wrote himself or had one of his allies write” to “weigh the scales in his favor” and justify repressive behavior, she said.

Maher Madhioub, an Ennahda politician, said the president “represents a disappointment for a whole generation.”

“I’m among the students of Kais Saied, he taught us the law,” he said. “It is really a big problem — you are a law professor, how can you do this?”

Claire Parker in Jerusalem contributed to this report.