Even as it humiliates Russia, Ukraine’s line is crumbling in the Donbas

Four weeks into Ukraine’s advance into the Russian province of Kursk, the soundscape of war is changing. The rat-a-tat clap of enemy machineguns was always a feature, but now it is punctured by the clangs and agonies of direct hits. “The enemy has wised up,” complains Serhiy, an armoured-vehicle driver with the 80th brigade, one of the four key units that led the charge. “The firing was wild in the first few days. Now we are up against professional gunners, we think from the naval infantry.” Ukraine is continuing to edge forward, using electronic warfare and the green cover of summer to evade the worst of Russia’s attention. Their commanders in particular appear determined to push westward towards the natural frontiers of the Seym river. But the pace is slowing—and a new front line, stretching for hundreds of kilometres, is taking shape.

The fog of war and cloak of Ukrainian operational secrecy mean details are still scarce. But satellite images showing Russian fortifications offer the most obvious confirmation of stabilisation. In the initial phase, Russian engineering teams protected against worst-case scenarios, digging in around high-value targets like the nuclear-power station near Kurchatov and along the main road leading north to the regional capital, Kursk. Now they are building extended fortifications to the east and west, much closer to the new front lines—and at the closest point, only 16km from assumed Ukrainian positions, according to Brady Africk, an American analyst who tracks these defences. The pace of the construction mirrors that seen in southern Ukraine in early 2023. The appearance of the so-called “Surovikin line”, named after Russia’s commanding general at the time, played a key part in stopping Ukraine’s counteroffensive later that year.

Ukrainian military-intelligence sources say they are untroubled by the likely culmination of the Kursk offensive. The operation has already achieved important objectives, says “Detective”, an officer involved in the action. Kursk was a “proof of concept”, he says, demonstrating Ukraine’s continued ability to circumvent Russia’s numerical advantage. It was synchronised with a broader campaign of “deep strikes” into Russia, using Ukrainian-produced weapons to hit aerodromes and energy infrastructure every day. Success has shown what could be achieved if Ukraine’s Western allies were to drop their restrictions on using their weapons. It has also brought in nearly 600 prisoners of war for exchange.

Russian resilience

But the Kursk operation has failed to achieve its big aim of distracting Russian forces from their push towards Pokrovsk, a vital logistical hub for Ukrainian troops. Russia has moved some troops from the Kherson region in the south, and from the Chasiv Yar and Siversk lines in the east. But as Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Olesksandr Syrsky, admitted on August 27th, Russia has only intensified its focus on the crossroads town. Moreover, Ukrainian defences appear to be crumbling, with Russia making rapid gains along the main railway from the east. By the end of General Syrsky’s press conference, Russian forces had moved fully into the mining town of Novohrodivka, less than 9km from Pokrovsk. Oleksandr, a drone commander with the 110th brigade, says the Russians are excelling in surprise operations of their own. “They hide in the forests, gather forces, and then they surge forward.”

Russia’s swift progress has highlighted weaknesses in Ukraine’s own fortifications. In some instances, advancing Russian troops have turned Ukraine’s concrete trenches into their own. More often than not, there have simply not been enough Ukrainian obstacles or men to hold the lines. The Russians are much better resourced in this regard, with ten dedicated engineering regiments against Ukraine’s one regiment and two brigades. Part of Ukraine’s problem is cultural, says an officer in one of Ukraine’s few engineering units. “The General Staff simply isn’t managing the process, and there isn’t a plan.”

Ukraine’s troubles in the Donbas region pose questions about what it is doing with its reserves, which Russian commentators claim are not insubstantial. “Botsman”, a soldier with the Khorne group, which is fighting in the Kursk salient, says Ukraine is indeed preparing a new stage in its operation. “This is far from the last surprise for the enemy from us,” he says.

In the past few days, reports have emerged of new troop build-ups near the Russian border in the Belgorod region, and on the Belarus border in the north. Speculation about a possible second incursion in the south is being aired. But after the humiliation of Kursk for Russia, one thing is clear: it will be watching. There will be no new element of surprise. The danger is that as the situation deteriorates around Pokrovsk, Ukraine will be compelled to use whatever it has to halt the slide. ■

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