As ammo runs out, Ukraine still hopes it won’t need that ‘ride’

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.

KYIV — Ukraine is approaching its most perilous period since it first astonished the world with its heroic, improvised defense of Kyiv in the days after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his army across the border.

But as the country navigates this precarious time, the question is: Are we now in the process of losing Ukraine? And, even more crucially, is the country in danger of losing itself?

At the start of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy famously spurned an evacuation offer, telling his would-be American rescuers: “I need ammunition, not a ride.” First Lady Olena Zelenska echoed that sentiment, sharing the words: “I will not panic and cry. I will be calm and confident. My kids are watching.”

Meanwhile, Ukrainians swamped recruitment centers to volunteer while others, shovels in hand, helped dig trenches and build makeshift fortifications on the capital’s outskirts. Across the country — including in the Carpathians, far from immediate danger — old and young set up ramshackle checkpoints, sometimes armed only with rusty shotguns and a suspicion of strangers.

Many didn’t wait for orders to head to flashpoints to fight. Britain flew in shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles; the U.S. quickly followed suit with bulkier Javelins; and Ukrainian grit — assisted by risible Russian tactics and the savvy of Ukraine’s then-Commander in Chief General Valery Zaluzhny — saved not only the day but the nation.

But along the way, foot-dragging has all too often followed the West’s bold rhetoric, and its promises to stand with Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” And while Western weapons and kit did arrive in huge numbers, they never arrived quickly enough, and were often accompanied by hand-wringing from both U.S. and European leaders, fearful of Russian escalation and sometimes spooked by nuclear threats from the Kremlin.

As Ukrainians regularly stress, the weapons that have arrived are enough for the country to hang on — but nowhere near enough for it to win the war.

“I remember our conversation in the Pentagon back in the April of 2022, when we were begging them to please start training our pilots for F-16 jets,” Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, an opposition lawmaker and former deputy prime minister, told POLITICO. Pilots are now belatedly being trained, but are likely still months away — June at the earliest — from being proficient.

And then there is U.S. President Joe Biden’s $60 billion aid package, which remains trapped in the U.S. Congress. Will it pass? Ukrainian officials and lawmakers try not to think about that, holding fast to the belief that the U.S. won’t leave Ukraine in the lurch.

In an exclusive interview with POLITICO, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba emphasized the country’s “unconditional gratitude to partners for everything they’ve done.” But he also fretted that their actions don’t match the rhetoric. Kuleba said that in the first months of the war, allies “showed that in a state of shock, they’re capable of taking ground-breaking decisions.” But then, for them the situation normalized, “and you began to see them going back to the usual way of doing politics. The problem is that it has not normalized for a single day here.”

Mykhailo Podolyak, a political adviser to Zelenskyy, told POLITICO he remains optimistic that the nation-saving package will be approved. Apart from anything else, he said, “it will be strange if the package doesn’t get approved, as America considers Russia to be a key opponent, and investing in Ukraine is an investment in America’s reputation, in its dominance, in its ability to enforce global rules and to make sure they are not violated.”

However, it isn’t clear whether this argument will persuade the parochial holdouts in Washington. And what are Ukraine’s prospects if it doesn’t? Klympush-Tsintsadze had a terse, monosyllabic answer — “scary.”

Europe, for its part, is trying to help Ukraine make up its colossal disadvantage in artillery shells. In this regard, a proposed Czech-led bulk artillery ammunition purchase is becoming ever more urgent for Kyiv, as it would bring their total purchases from both within and outside the EU it to around 1.5 million rounds, at a cost of $3.3 billion.

But how quickly can an agreement on bankrolling this purchase be reached between EU members? And, more crucially, when will the munitions actually start arriving at the front line?

According to Czech national security advisor Tomáš Pojar, the first of the additional shells from Prague could be shipped in June. In the meantime, the European Commission’s lead spokesperson Peter Stano noted, around half of the original million shells the EU had promised for this year will be delivered by the end of this month.

But the EU has promised and failed to deliver on time before. And when it comes to military aid overall, there’s been a lot of playing around with numbers. Earlier this month, for example, EU leaders agreed on a new $5 billion weapons fund for Ukraine after weeks of wrangling, but as it quickly emerged, it was more of a creative accounting trick with no infusion of new cash.

At Germany’s Ramstein Air Base last week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin promised that America and other allies wouldn’t let Ukraine down. “The United States will not let Ukraine fail. This coalition will not let Ukraine fail. And the free world will not let Ukraine fail,” he vowed. Yet, just days before, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Mike Johnson had proposed to unblock a congressional impasse on assistance to Ukraine by delivering the aid in the form of a loan or a lend-lease deal — a twist that shocked Ukraine and belied the historic importance of this war.

But Ukraine’s allies don’t have a monopoly on tardiness and missteps — hence the worry about whether the country is also in danger of losing itself.

For example, many in Ukraine, including its frontline troops, see Zelenskyy’s dismissal of Zaluzhny as an unforced error by the country’s leader — and one likely owing to his view of the general as a potential political rival.

“People were very shocked and disappointed with Zelenskyy’s decision,” Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, the former heavyweight prizefighter, told POLITICO.

In his office overlooking Khreshchatyk Street, the wide boulevard running through downtown Kyiv, Klitschko was dealing with the impact of missile strikes on the city the night before. “We need, right now, unity. We need to be united around the people whom we trust, and Zaluzhny, for two years, successfully helped us defend our homeland. He’s the most trusted man in Ukraine, and to take him from his position was not right,” he said.

Mindful of the perils ahead, Klitschko argued that the time has come for Zelenskyy to consider expanding his government — to stop relying on a tight coterie of trusted advisers and loyalists and instead form a government of national unity, one able to draw from a bigger pool of Ukraine’s best and most talented.

“The period ahead could be very painful for the country, and we shouldn’t be held hostage by mistakes. Two hats are better than one. A government of national unity would be a good thing for the country. And with more people involved, there will be fewer chances to make mistakes,” he added.

Among such mistakes is the slow start to the construction of defense fortifications ahead of an expected spring or summer push from Russia, as well as the failure to resolve an impasse over mobilization and move toward a major call-up.

It isn’t just ammunition and weapons Ukraine desperately lacks — the surge in patriotic fervor that saw recruitment centers swamped with volunteers has waned as the war dragged into its third year. Ukraine is now scrambling to draft men for a battlefield that is chewing up its soldiers.

Ukrainian authorities are conflicted over whether to cajole or coerce people into enlisting amid draft-dodging, and afraid of the political fallout if they choose the latter. Mobilization legislation has been stuck in the parliament for months as Zelenskyy, the parliament and the defense ministry keep passing the buck. But with Kyiv outmanned on the front lines, and Putin reportedly planning to mobilize many more following his sham reelection, the clock is ticking.

“Without sufficient manpower levels, Kyiv will likely consume its available resources at much higher rates, leading to much faster Russian gains in the long term,” warned Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting. “Work on legislation is progressing at a snail’s pace, which further harms [Ukraine’s] ability to defend itself over the following months. Even assuming the best-case scenario that President Zelenskyy signs the law by mid-April, draftees would only start entering the front line by late summer/early autumn.”

“This presents Moscow with a window of opportunity where manpower and artillery ammunition shortages will prevent Ukrainians from mounting effective defensive operations,” he added.