In shadow of Trump, Putin and Orbán, EU struggles to get its act together on Ukraine

BRUSSELS — The European Union still has Ukraine’s back.

That’s the message the EU wants to send to Kyiv this week, just before the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion. It wants to send that same message to Moscow, and even to Donald Trump.

To fulfill that aim, the EU wants to give Kyiv €50 billion and increase weapons shipments; slap new sanctions on Russia; and skim off the profits from frozen Russian assets to support the reconstruction of Ukraine.

“We would just have to put a nice ribbon on this package and send it to Kyiv,” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak freely, as were others in this piece. 

Should that fail, EU leaders are crafting a Plan B — in case Orbán blocks the package. And that fear seems to be defining this summit.

When EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday, a long-awaited deal on the €50 billion aid package would ensure Kyiv has “stable, predictable and sustainable financial support,” according to a text the leaders aim to adopt, seen by POLITICO. Without Western support for Ukraine’s war-shattered economy, Kyiv will not be able to keep fighting Russia for long. 

But the pressure is on the EU to act now, with Washington struggling to agree on its own financial backing for Ukraine. And if Trump returns to the White House after the November election, Europe could potentially be left on its own in backing Ukraine and fending off Russia.

Ahead of the leaders’ meeting, diplomats and officials expressed anxiety, hoping that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would drop his opposition to the Ukraine aid package — a measure that technically needs the agreement of all 27 governments of the EU.

“The level of nervousness is quite high,” said one senior EU official. 

Orbán has repeatedly stressed he does not believe in a military solution to the conflict in Ukraine. Sending more money and weapons to Kyiv will only escalate the war instead of resolving it, the Hungarian leader argues. 

Weeks of negotiating with Budapest, using both carrots and sticks, have so far failed, with Orbán accusing the EU of “blackmail.” As is often the case with Orbán, a solution is likely to be found only when he is in the room with his counterparts. 

“We are looking for a solution with 27,” an Elysée official said. “We hope the Hungarian prime minister does the same.”

Plan B

The leaders failed to reach a deal in December, and since then EU officials have been drawing up a plan B: working around Orbán’s objections by agreeing to both the EU’s long-term budget and the Ukraine aid package — with the backing of 26 countries. 

But that’s far from ideal, the diplomats stressed. Not only is a deal with 26 rather than 27 technically more cumbersome, it also undermines the EU’s unity on Ukraine — sending a negative signal to Kyiv, Moscow and Washington.

It could also push the frustration of leaders with  Orbán to another level, triggering discussions on stripping away Hungary’s EU voting rights. 

“The underlying question is: what does Orbán really want?” said Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform. “Does he want money? Or does he have bigger political goals to disrupt the EU, for example to please Putin?” 

Orbán may not be so isolated for long, with polls forecasting a surge in support for Euroskeptic parties in the EU election this June, which could make the European Parliament more Russia-friendly.

“Orban’s support for Putin is becoming more than obvious,” said EU lawmaker Rasa Juknevičienė from Lithuania. “I hope that all the other 26 countries will show unity and leadership in finding a solution to what is an existential issue for Europe. Ukraine is fighting for us too.”

Boosting defense

Ukraine’s financial lifeline isn’t the only support measure the EU is struggling with.

A longstanding ask from Ukraine to use Russia’s frozen assets for its post-war reconstruction is moving forward — albeit with baby steps. EU countries so far have only agreed to transfer the profits of frozen Russian assets to a separate account. That’s despite a push from the United States government to confiscate not just the profits, but also the assets themselves. 

This weekend, Brussels is also set to kick start discussions on new sanctions against Russia. But diplomats are playing down any chances for meaty measures. After the EU sanctioned Russian diamonds in the fall, there are few areas left to target with big-ticket restrictions.

The war in Ukraine has also laid bare the EU’s limited arms production capacities, with Brussels now struggling to catch up after decades of underinvestment. A potential Trump return puts extra pressure on Europe to beef up its defense capabilities — especially given his recent vow to strike a “peace deal” with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the heads of Ukraine and the EU.

“If the world becomes even more difficult, for example as a result of the possible election results in the USA, then the European Union must become all the stronger,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Wednesday. “And France and Germany must take on this task so that this is actually possible. … Europe is the strongest national interest we have.”

On Thursday, European leaders are also expected to discuss the EU’s military aid to Ukraine as they struggle to reach a deal on the European Peace Facility — the off-budget cash pot used to reimburse capitals for arms delivery to Ukraine.

The idea is to sign off as soon as possible on a €5 billion top-up and to move toward joint European procurement of weapons. Hungary, which was critical of this decision, has softened its line on setting up a new branch of the peace facility, the Ukraine Assistance Fund to provide weapons to Ukraine. Still, diplomats said that more work needs to be done for all European capitals to sign off on it. 

Speaking to reporters in Brussels on Wednesday evening, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas summed up the mood when she said: “There’s definitely geopolitical pressure … Is Europe able to deliver on the promises given?”

“Putin and Russia … don’t believe in multilateralism, they don’t believe that we are able to keep this unity. And if we are falling apart, then it’s definitely a win for the Russian side.”

Gregorio Sorgi, Nicolas Camut, Claudia Chiappa and Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting.