Donald Trump survives an apparent assassination attempt

JUST SIX MINUTES after Donald Trump began speaking to a crowd of supporters in Butler County, Pennsylvania, a pop was heard. Mr Trump’s hand immediately went to his right ear. More pops followed. Mr Trump ducked; his Secret Service protective detail jumped on top of him. The crowd began to scream. One minute later, his agents and police began shouting “shooter’s down” and “we’re clear” to one another. They lifted Mr Trump up, surrounding him. He paused, then raised his fist defiantly into the air several times before his bodyguards rushed him out.

“I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and I immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin,” Mr Trump recounted hours later on his social-media site. “Much bleeding took place, so I realised then what was happening.” Mr Trump said nothing further about his injuries but his campaign and President Joe Biden said he was not seriously harmed.

The motive of the deceased shooter is unknown and may take days to determine. But this appears to be the most serious assassination attempt against a president or presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan was shot and seriously wounded in 1981. Whatever the shooter’s profile, it takes the 2024 presidential campaign, already seething with contempt and chaos, into an even darker direction.

Mr Biden, who is vying for re-election against Mr Trump, told reporters in Delaware that he was trying to reach his rival but had not yet succeeded. “So far it appears that he’s doing well,” Mr Biden said. He added, “There’s no place in America for this kind of violence. It’s sick…Everybody must condemn it.”

Political violence has been rising in America. In 2017, a left-wing fanatic shot a practice session of the Republican congressional baseball team, nearly killing Steve Scalise, the current majority leader. A crazed man invaded the San Francisco home of Nancy Pelosi, then the Democratic house speaker, in 2022, and repeatedly bashed her elderly husband on the head with a hammer. Supporters of Mr Trump were so incensed by his election loss to Mr Biden in 2020, that they attempted a violent sack of the Capitol on January 6th 2021. As shocking as the attempt on Mr Trump’s life is, it is sadly not surprising.

Mr Trump is days away from being formally nominated for the presidency for the third consecutive time at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Images of the bleeding candidate holding his fist in the air will saturate the media in coming days and will now likely define the convention’s narrative. “It is incredible that such an act can take place in our Country,” Mr Trump wrote on Saturday night.

The mood within the Trumpworld had been triumphal over the last few weeks. Ever since Mr Biden’s self-immolation at the debate between the two men, held on June 27th, the Democrats have been agonising over the viability of Mr Biden’s re-election bid. Some 20 elected Democrats in Congress have publicly called for the president to stand aside. Mr Trump had been relatively quiet during this period, standing back while the Democrats tore themselves apart.

The consensus view in Washington is that Mr Trump is the dominant favourite to win the presidential election. Defying an assassination attempt may only enhance his standing. Already comparisons are being made to Theodore Roosevelt, who was shot in the chest in 1912 but finished his speech after judging the wound unthreatening. Republicans were already unwavering in their support of Mr Trump, despite the shock of January 6th and the multiple indictments (and several felony convictions) that their candidate has faced. His supporters’ allegiance will be even more secure now.

For Mr Biden, the shooting is a test of presidential leadership that he sought to meet with an early public appearance to report facts and promise follow-up. It would be a modest balm in this fractious summer if Mr Biden’s outreach to his rival produced even a brief performance of comity and good will between the candidates.

If that occurs, it may pass quickly. Mr Biden has often campaigned on the idea that he is running to save the nation’s democracy from Mr Trump’s intended tyranny and dictatorship. Republicans have in turn painted the president as a corrupt criminal. After the shooting, J.D. Vance, the Republican senator who is on Mr Trump’s vice-presidential shortlist, wrote on X that the shooting was “not an isolated incident” and that the Biden’ campaign’s rhetoric “led directly to Mr Trump’s attempted assassination”. More of that sort of incendiary accusation can be expected.

Mr Biden, meanwhile, has been fighting for his political life, portraying himself as an insurgent against his own party’s establishment after his abysmal debate performance. Media attention will now shift from the president’s own struggles to Mr Trump, perhaps starving the rebellion against Mr Biden of the attention it needed to succeed. The presidential election had been stable, even dull, until it was thrown off its rails just over two weeks ago. It now seems destined for many more twists and turns. ■