What to expect after Germany’s confidence vote

ON DECEMBER 16TH Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, lost a parliamentary confidence vote. Mr Scholz planned to lose in order to pave the way for early elections, now expected on February 23rd. His three-party coalition fell apart last month. The mood in Germany is glum: Europe’s largest economy has barely grown in six years, and political infighting stalled progress on badly needed reforms. Much like incumbents in the rest of the world, Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) can expect a beating. Three charts help explain why.

A regular survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, a pollster, shows that one issue has overtaken all others among German voters. In its latest survey, on December 6th, one-third of respondents said the “economic situation” was Germany’s most pressing problem (up from the fourth-biggest issue one year ago). About 43% said that Germany’s economic situation was “bad”—the highest share since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2007-08.

There is good reason for the pessimism: the European Commission forecasts that Germany’s economy is expected to grow by just 0.7% in 2025—the lowest forecast in the EU. Tariffs imposed by the incoming Trump administration in America could put its economy back into decline. Struggling economies have hurt incumbent governments in other countries this year. In America and Britain, for example, voters cited the economy as the most pressing issue as they gave their respective leaders the boot.

Who might take over from the SPD? Polls suggest that the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), along with their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), should comfortably become the biggest party in parliament (see our poll tracker). The CDU/CSU is polling at 31%—the SPD manages a little over half that. The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), meanwhile, could become the second-largest party in the Bundestag for the first time.

Yet the AfD has no chance of entering government. Mainstream parties in Germany, unlike those in many other European countries, refuse to work with the hard right. The AfD’s strength in parliament will, though, complicate the formation of a coalition. If Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU’s chancellor-candidate, is lucky, he will be able to choose either the SPD or the Greens as a junior partner. If not, he may need both to make up the numbers. A second consecutive three-party coalition might struggle to deliver the economic turnaround Germans yearn for. ■

Editor’s note (December 16th 2024): This article has been updated.