Why are India and Pakistan fighting over water?
ON APRIL 23RD, the day after a brutal terrorist attack in Indian-administrated Kashmir, a region claimed by both India and Pakistan, a long-standing water treaty between the two countries was suspended by India’s government. Why has water become a diplomatic weapon between the two nuclear powers in South Asia?
India’s suspension of the treaty, first signed in 1960, is unprecedented. Although both countries have long had terrible relations, water was considered out of bounds. The treaty has survived two wars, one more limited conflict and several cross-border clashes. India and Pakistan rely on the Indus river system which flows from the Himalayas and across their militarised border, including the contested territory of Kashmir, which both sides claim in full but govern in part. Over 80% of Pakistani agriculture and about a third of its hydropower generation depend on the Indus basin, which India’s upstream position gives it control over.
Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, has threatened Pakistan’s water supply in the past, for example after attacks in Kashmir in 2016 and 2019. Many analysts believe India is leveraging the crisis now to renegotiate a pact it has long disliked. Water demand is expected to double by 2030 owing to economic growth and climate change. India has grown dissatisfied with the 30% of Indus waters that the treaty assigns to it. In 2023, Pakistan refused India’s request to modify the agreement, which is only amendable by consensus and lacks an exit clause.
Chandrakant Raghunath Patil, India’s water-resources minister, has pledged to “ensure no drop of the Indus River’s water reaches Pakistan”. But India lacks the dam infrastructure to starve Pakistan of its river flows. What India does seem to have done is to stop sharing hydrological data or updates on dam projects with its neighbour. If India no longer considers itself bound by the treaty’s arbitration mechanism, it can also ignore Pakistan’s objections to India’s Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric power plant projects.
Vikram Misri, India’s foreign secretary, has sworn to suspend the treaty “until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”. Although the suspension is largely symbolic, it risks escalating a delicate diplomatic situation. India did not consult or notify the World Bank, a treaty signatory. Pakistan’s government has declared that any diversion or blocking of river flows would be considered an “act of war”. Pakistan has threatened to void other bilateral agreements. This includes the 1972 Simla Agreement, which sets the Line of Control as a provisional border and commits the two sides to bilateral and peaceful resolution of conflicts.
If tensions escalate, could outside powers intervene? America acted as a mediator in 2019, but President Donald Trump is probably not interested in international treaties. America and India have grown closer and Pakistan has lost much of its strategic utility to America after its 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan. China might have some powers of persuasion. In 2016, it blocked a tributary river of the Yarlung Tsangpo (which in India becomes the Brahmaputra) following Indian threats to sever Pakistan’s water supply. China declared the move part of a hydropower project. But many analysts saw a pre-emptive defence of China’s all-weather ally, Pakistan. China has also approved the construction of the world’s largest dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo, tightening its grip over India’s access to water. If India escalates its water diplomacy against Pakistan, China might turn off the tap. ■