China warns US there are no winners in trade wars – business live

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Two days after the US election result, countries around the world are digesting what impact Trump 2.0 will have on their economies – especially if the president-elect kicks off a trade war.

China would obviously be in the firing line, given Donald Trump’s suggestion he could slap a 60% tariff on Chinese imports at the US border.

And with that in mind, presumably, China’s ambassador to the United States has warned that there are no winners in tariff or trade wars.

Ambassador Xie Feng also warned against wars over science, technology or industry, in a speech at a U.S.-China Business Council dinner on Thursday seen by Reuters.

Xie encouraged U.S. companies to invest and operate in China, and said he was looking forward to strengthening dialogue and cooperation on global challenges such as climate change and artificial intelligence.

Striking a concilliatory pose, Xie argued for the merits of partnership:

“China and the United States can achieve many great and good things through cooperation, and the list of cooperation should be stretched longer and longer.”

“The more success stories of mutually beneficial cooperation, the better.”

“Cooperation”, though, wasn’t top of the agenda during Trump 1.0; in 2018, Washington imposed trade sanctions on China, including restrictions on investment and tariffs, prompting tit-for-tat retaliation from Beijing.

This time round, China’s president Xi is presiding over a far worse domestic economy; if Trump imposes new tariffs, analysts reckon it could affect $500bn worth of Chinese goods.

ING’s global head of macro, Carsten Brzeski, predicts that the Trump administration will initally focus on domestic policy, including immigration and extending/expanding tax cuts, before turning to trade issues….

Brzeski told clients:

We think the earliest timing for tariffs to be implemented is the third quarter of 2025. China would likely be impacted first, with a gradual series of tariffs introduced on different products from other countries coming in later.

Tariffs would be a blow for US consumers – already reeling from the global spike in inflation in 2022 and 2023 – as they’ll be passed on by importers.

Last night, America’s top central banker said the US economy was performing well, with stronger growth than other major economies, falling inflation and a solid jobs market.

Jerome Powell also insisted he would not resign if Trump asked him to leave his role, following reports that some of the president-elect’s advisors would like Powell to resign.

Asked it he would quit if asked by Trump, Powell responded with a blunt “no”. Powell also said the White House demoting Fed governors from their leadership roles is “not permitted under the law”.

The agenda

• 7.45am GMT: French trade data for September

• 9am GMT: UN’s monthly food price index

• 1.30pm GMT: Canadian non-farm payroll report for October

• 3pm GMT: University of Michigan US consumer confidence index