The strange revival of Liberal Canada
The dilemma facing Canada’s Conservative Party can be summed up in its campaign slogan: “Canada first. For a change.” Just three months ago the party enjoyed its best opinion-poll rating since 1988. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s emphasis on housing and promise to reverse a decade of Liberal failure under Justin Trudeau, who was prime minister until earlier this month, gave him a double-digit lead. But Mr Trudeau’s departure from politics and President Donald Trump’s vow to wage “economic war” against its neighbour have made “Canada first” an uncomfortable echo of Mr Trump’s slogan.
Mr Trump’s tariffs on Canada—with the threat of more to come on April 2nd—along with his jibes that it should be the “51st state” have altered the landscape of Canadian politics. According to the Angus Reid Institute, the same pollster, the Liberal Party has jumped by 30 points from a historic low of 16% at the end of 2024 to 46% in its latest poll on March 24th. Conservative support was put at 38%. Mr Trump’s Canada-bashing has plainly boosted the previously flagging Liberals.
They are now led by Mark Carney, a former central banker, whom only 7% of Canadians in a nationwide poll could identify last July. So when Mr Carney called a snap election for April 28th, he chose to campaign against the least popular politician in Canada: Mr Trump. “He wants to break us so America can own us,” said the former ice-hockey player as he launched his campaign. “We will not let that happen.”
Mr Carney has heartily supported a volley of tariffs on the United States and has hit back at Mr Trump’s expansionist rhetoric. He has the advantage of not being tainted by association with Mr Trudeau. Meanwhile, Liberals have branded Mr Poilievre a “Maple-syrup MAGA” and gleefully seize on the similarities between the two men in attack ads. Mr Carney boasts that “a person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him.” Indeed, both Mr Trump and Mr Poilievre have bashed mainstream media, vaccine mandates and the liberal elite. Yet the Conservative leader insists comparisons are overblown and that he is not “a MAGA guy”.
Some in Mr Poilievre’s entourage think he needs to join this bandwagon and attack Mr Trump more directly. “There is only one issue,” says Kory Teneycke, who ran a successful anti-Trump campaign for the Conservatives in Ontario. “Carney has one message and it’s easy to understand.”
Mr Poilievre has reiterated his willingness to stand up to American aggression, but has stopped short of basing his campaign on it. He has instead hammered away at the housing shortage, carbon taxes and the rising cost of living—the targets that lifted his party above the Liberals two years ago and are still the priorities of a large swathe of the electorate. Yet the issue that has triggered the stampede towards the Liberals has been Mr Trump’s insistence that Canada could avoid tariffs if only it would abandon its independence and join the United States.
No one asks about policy, says Karina Gould, a Liberal member of parliament. “They just want to know that there is going to be someone there to stand up for Canada.” Mr Carney hopes his slogan, “Canada Strong”, answers that question. ■