Donald Trump dashes any hope that he will get tough with Russia

IN THE HOURS before Donald Trump picked up the phone on May 19th to speak to Vladimir Putin, European diplomats believed that they were inching closer to alignment with the Americans on Ukraine. The American president had advertised the call as “turkey time”, a last-chance call for the Kremlin to end the war or face pain in the form of tough new sanctions. By the time the two-hour call ended, and European leaders joined a debrief with Mr Trump, it became clear that no threat had been issued to the Russian leader. Mr Trump hinted he would instead simply walk away from the negotiating process if he could not get the two sides to agree quickly, which in the absence of new pressure now appears likely. “I think something’s going to happen,” Mr Trump told reporters, though without providing a shred of justification for this optimism. “And if it doesn’t, I’ll just back away and they’re going to have to keep going.”

Many close to Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, have long believed that Mr Trump would be difficult to win over. But ever since the disastrous first February meeting in the Oval office, they have adopted a strategy of placating Mr Trump, while moving strictly in lockstep with European advisers. They have made several concessions in pursuing the goal of a ceasefire followed by meaningful negotiations. This includes dropping their demands for security guarantees before talks could start; imposing no conditions on a suggested ceasefire; signing a minerals and economic partnership deal; and flying to Turkey for talks that were less talks than a Russian declaration of a “forever war”.

The call appeared to vindicate the most sceptical in Mr Zelensky’s team. Despite promises to act tough, Mr Trump smothered Mr Putin with flattery and affection. “No one wanted to put down the receiver first,” is how one Kremlin adviser, Yury Ushakov, described an exchange that was light on detail and heavy on pledges of future economic co-operation. Mr Trump insisted that his call had achieved a new Russian agreement to work on a “memorandum” for peace, and on “immediate” talks. There was also the promise of new mediation by the Vatican. “Maybe that will be helpful. There’s lots of bitterness,” said Mr Trump. But a source close to Mr Zelensky says that Mr Trump sounded more as though he was crafting an exit strategy after understanding that he would struggle to achieve a breakthrough.

The Vatican has already confirmed that it is ready to host any new negotiation. A working group has been established with the Ukrainians, and there is an offer to do the same with the Russians. Mr Putin may well be attracted by the opportunity to validate himself by talking peace in Europe even while charges of war crimes hang over him. But he must surely know there is a downside to presenting heavily belligerent policies in such a holy setting. At the time of printing, the Russians had not agreed to the venue, or to anything as straightforward as a date or a format.

Describing Mr Trump’s U-turn on sanctions as a “bump in a very bad road”, one Western diplomat insisted that Mr Trump had yet to come to a final decision about his future involvement. What an exit could mean in practice is also hard to say: temporary or permanent; a partial exit or a full betrayal? Many other demands make calls upon Mr Trump’s time: the various crises in the Middle East, his “big beautiful” tax-cuts bill and his continuing tariff battles with much of the world. Prioritising these things does not necessarily mean he will cut off the flow of intelligence to Ukraine, or halt the supply of military equipment that is scheduled to keep flowing until at least the summer.

Ukraine’s backers hope Mr Trump may once again defy expectations. Perhaps in “withdrawing” from the process, he will allow Congress to vote through a sanctions package that would target Russian energy exports by hitting those who buy them with tariffs of up to 500%. Insiders say that the package already has enough signatures in the Senate to be passed; but it would still require Mr Trump’s approval. It is not impossible. But it is also hard to imagine it from a man who, whenever faced with Russian intransigence, has so far responded by tightening the screws on Ukraine. ■

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