Europe argues — and prays — for a measured response from Israel

LONDON — The message from Europe following Iran’s missile attack on Israel could not be clearer: this must not escalate further.

But whether Tel Aviv — and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in particular — are listening remains to be seen.

Iran attacked Israel with a flurry of missile and drone strikes overnight Saturday, in retaliation for Israel’s deadly attack on Iran’s Damascus consulate earlier this month. Iran’s barrage of missiles — largely repelled by Israel, with support from French and British fighter jets — marked a steep escalation in the proxy conflict between the two Middle Eastern powers.

“Whoever hurts us, we will hurt him,” Netanyahu warned in response.

But the U.K. and France, Europe’s premier military powers, put on a united front of diplomacy Monday as they sought to pressure Israel not to hit back at Iran with outsized force.

“On Saturday evening, Iran sought to plunge the Middle East into a new crisis,” U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told a packed House of Commons Monday. “If it had succeeded, the fallout for regional security and the toll on Israeli citizens would have been catastrophic.

“But it did not succeed. In support of Israel’s own defensive action, the United Kingdom joined a U.S.-led international effort, along with France and partners in the region, which intercepted almost all of the missiles, saving lives in Israel and its neighbors,” Sunak added.

The prime minister told MPs he will speak to Netanyahu in the coming days — and that, while the U.K. remains supportive of Israel, he wishes to see “calmer heads prevail.”

“I will … be speaking to Prime Minister Netanyahu to express our solidarity with Israel in the face of this attack, and to discuss how we can prevent further escalation. All sides must show restraint,” Sunak said.

European aims

Sunak’s counterpart in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron, earlier expressed his own concerns about escalation in the Middle East — and urged Israel to instead try to isolate Iran, rather than retaliate.

“We are all worried about a possible escalation,” Macron told French broadcasters. “We will do all we can to avoid things flaring up, escalating.” The French president is also expected to speak to Netanyahu early this week.

It’s not yet clear whether providing military support last Saturday will give London and Paris any increased leverage in their private conversations with Israeli leaders. Sunak’s spokesman Monday denied this had been the intention behind Britain’s involvement. Macron insisted France’s involvement had come at the behest of neighboring Jordan.

Paris and London are certainly braced for some military response from Tel Aviv. The British government remains hopeful this will not come in the form of a direct attack on Iran, according to U.K. government aides granted permission to speak anonymously.

Instead, Sky News reported, the hope among some officials is that any Israeli retaliation will come in the form of a strike against one of Iran’s proxy forces. The IDF has already claimed to have struck sites linked to Hezbollah in response to the weekend attacks.

A limited response may be less likely to provoke further reaction from Iran, which Monday urged Western nations to “appreciate Iran’s restraint in recent months” toward Israel.

“Instead of making accusations against Iran, (Western) countries should blame themselves and answer to public opinion for the measures they have taken against the … war crimes committed by Israel” in its campaign against Hamas in Gaza, said Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani.

According to the Times of Israel, Netanyahu’s war cabinet is yet to reach a decision as to how it should respond. Politicians in multiple European capitals took to the airwaves to make clear their fear tit-for-tat attacks could escalate into a full-blown regional war.

Sunak’s top diplomat, the U.K. foreign secretary David Cameron, has already commenced a diplomatic push aimed at preventing such an outcome, speaking to counterparts in Iran, Israel, the U.S, Germany, Jordan and Turkey over the weekend. Cameron is set to visit Israel in person this week.

‘Take the win’

Speaking to Times Radio Monday, Cameron called on Israel to “take the win and then move on” — apparently aping the language used by U.S. President Joe Biden.

“We’re very anxious to avoid escalation and to say to our friends in Israel, it’s a time to think with head as well as heart,” Cameron said. “The smart thing to do, as well as the tough thing to do now, is actually not to escalate.”

According to multiple stateside media reports, Biden has made clear to Netanyahu that the U.S. will not join any Israeli counter strike on Iran.

But it is less clear if Netanyahu is listening. The Israeli PM has already hit back at his close ally over U.S. warnings about the high levels of civilian deaths in Gaza.

Netanyahu has also set a date for a military offensive in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah, despite vocal U.S. and European opposition to the proposed assault.

It remains to be seen if Tel Aviv will take a different approach in its response to Iran. In the meantime, the diplomatic push from Europe will continue.