Governments around the world are failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to meet the goals of the Paris agreement and to stave off climate disaster, a major new report by the UN has found.
Meeting the goals will require “phasing out all unabated fossil fuels”, the report says, in an acknowledgment that some oil-producing countries may find hard to take.
The need to phase out fossil fuels has not been explicitly adopted by the UN before, under successive rounds of climate talks, and language over “phasing out” or “phasing down” fossil fuels has caused controversy at the annual UN climate talks.
There is a “rapidly narrowing window” for governments to move faster, according to the report, as global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest, and be rapidly reduced from there, to limit temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Emissions are still rising, however, and there is a gap of 20 to 23 gigatonnes of CO2 between the cuts needed by 2030 to limit global temperatures to 1.5C and the world’s current emissions trajectory.
The report, which was expected next week but was published hurriedly in draft by the UN on Friday, will form the basis of the first “global stocktake” under the 2015 Paris agreement. That process is meant to track countries’ efforts to meet the goals of the treaty.
However, the 47-page UN report does not set out in detail which countries are falling behind, nor does it contain specific recommendations directed at particular countries or regions.
Instead, the global situation is described in broad and general terms that were largely predictable, as it has been clear for some time that the world is far off track to stay within the tougher of the Paris goals, of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Ani Dasgupta, the head of the World Resources Institute thinktank, noted that the bland tone of the report disguised a catastrophic failure. He said: “The UN’s polite prose glosses over what is a truly damning report card for global climate efforts.
“Carbon emissions? Still climbing. Rich countries’ finance commitments? Delinquent. Adaptation support? Lagging woefully behind. This report is a wake-up call to the injustice of the climate crisis, and a pivotal opportunity to correct course.”
The global stocktake will form the basis of negotiations at the next UN climate summit, Cop28, to be held in Dubai in November.
The president of Cop28, Sultan Al Jaber, has repeatedly called for a “course correction”. He is also chief of Adnoc, the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates, the host of the summit. However, Friday’s synthesis report shows that the prospect of such a correction remains far off.
Simon Stiell, the UN’s top official on climate, said governments had to do much more before Cop28. “I urge governments to carefully study the findings of the report and ultimately understand what it means for them and the ambitious action they must take next,” he said. “It’s the same for businesses, communities and other key stakeholders. The global stocktake is a critical moment for greater ambition and accelerating action.”
after newsletter promotion
The report found plenty of measures governments could take to reduce emissions that would be low-cost and easy to implement, including investments in renewable energy, and conserving and regrowing forests. Some developing countries will require financial help to seize these opportunities, however.
“There are now sufficient cost-effective opportunities to address the 2030 emissions gap, yet significant challenges, including access to and availability of support, remain in harnessing these opportunities at the required pace and scale,” the report says.
Tom Evans, a policy adviser at the E3G thinktank, said: “With this report in hand, governments going to Cop28 have their homework set. In Dubai, countries must agree an ambitious package of measures that can be a rapid response plan to make this report’s recommendations a reality.
“We need commitments to phase out fossil fuels and set 2030 targets for renewable energy expansion, to overhaul the financial system so it funds climate action, and to raise new funds to step up action on adaptation and loss and damage. Anything less will fall short on the necessary steps laid out in this report.”