Congress dodged a shutdown but may get an ugly December spending fight

The outcome of all those issues will probably hinge on the results of November’s elections, which already shaded September’s government shutdown brinkmanship.

Trillions of dollars in long-term tax policy questions also hang in the balance of the election, as huge parts of the 2017 tax law President Donald Trump signed will expire in 2025. The U.S. debt limit will need to be raised or suspended again early next year, too, so a December showdown over federal spending is just a preview of what awaits the next Congress.

If either party wins unified control of Washington, that party’s congressional leaders are likely to try to punt on spending issues again until the new president is inaugurated.

But divided government in some form is a more realistic proposition, according to most polls. And with a lame duck in the White House and atop Senate GOP leadership — and potentially atop the House Republican conference, too — even the main negotiators of a funding agreement are up in the air.

“There are a lot of known unknowns, and we need to see how November 5 shakes out, because that’s going to determine a lot of what happens,” said Aaron Cutler, head of the government relations practice at Washington lobbying firm Hogan Lovells.

In broad bipartisan votes last week, Congress approved a three-month funding bill, called a continuing resolution or CR, that extends financing for the federal government at current spending levels until Dec. 20. Without that move, funding would have expired at the end of Monday, forcing a shutdown.

The legislation also provided more than $230 million to the Secret Service to boost presidential candidate protection after agents thwarted a potential second assassination attempt on Trump. Passed just before Hurricane Helene’s landfall, the bill also authorized the Federal Emergency Management Agency to spend money at a faster pace than usual until December.

Trump and some House Republicans wanted House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to force a government shutdown over an unrelated measure that would require proof of citizenship for federal voter registration. (Noncitizen voting is already illegal in federal elections, and cases of voter fraud committed by noncitizens are exceedingly uncommon.)

But Johnson called that strategy “political malpractice,” reasoning that a shutdown this late in the election cycle could hurt the GOP. He leaned on support from Democrats to pass the legislation — the same strategy that led to the ouster of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

That gives lawmakers 12 weeks to pass the 12 annual spending bills, called appropriations, that fund the government. That won’t be enough time: It usually takes at least a week for the Senate to pass one piece of legislation, and Congress won’t return to Washington until Nov. 12.

And lawmakers are far from agreeing on overall spending figures for fiscal 2025, bickering over a $70 billion “side deal” that Republicans hope to slash after agreeing to it as part of debt ceiling negotiations in 2023.

Congress could roll the appropriations into one package, often called an omnibus, in December or roll several spending bills into “minibuses,” as lawmakers did to fund the government for the current fiscal year.

House Republicans loathe omnibuses, though, and Johnson vowed last week not to put one up for a vote. That might leave only one way to avoid a shutdown just before Christmas: another continuing resolution.

“I’ve said very clearly, we’re not going to return to the omnibus tradition. We worked very hard to break that tradition,” Johnson said. “We broke it into many buses the last time. We’ve got to build back muscle memory to run Congress the way it’s supposed to run, and the Republicans are committed to doing that. This would be a very important step, and we’ll see what happens in December.”

But Johnson’s influence could wane by then. If Republicans lose their narrow House majority in November, some in the party have signaled plans to challenge Johnson for GOP leader in the new Congress. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is set to retire from his leadership post. And President Joe Biden will be making way for either Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.

Johnson called last week’s CR “narrow” because it excluded several topics some lawmakers hoped to address before lawmakers return to Washington in November.

The Department of Veterans Affairs requires an additional $12 billion to provide care for military service members suffering from the effects of toxic burn pits. The House approved a $3 billion infusion in September to make up for a separate projected benefits shortfall.

Congress is delinquent on considering five-year legislation to revisit agriculture policy and update farm subsidies and nutrition assistance programs. Part of that measure, called the farm bill, expires Monday, and a larger portion expires at the end of the calendar year. Lawmakers already passed a one-year extension in 2023. Some lawmakers hoped last week’s CR would include a farm bill extension, but that did not materialize.

Last week’s CR also excluded additional funding for FEMA’s disaster response programs. Lawmakers of both parties from Vermont, Hawaii, Florida and Maryland have called for spending bills to replenish FEMA and other recovery accounts.