Swing-state economies are doing just fine

As we explain in our analysis of Pennsylvania’s economy, strong economic fundamentals will not be sufficient to propel Kamala Harris to the White House. Still, the health of the economy in the swing states should give Democrats some confidence in the final months of campaigning. Most have performed well in recent years relative to national benchmarks.

Start with inflation, the biggest black mark against the Biden-Harris administration. Since President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the cumulative rise in consumer prices for Americans has been 20%, representing the worst inflation since the early 1980s. Of the six swing states, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada have seen slightly higher overall inflation, while Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have had slightly milder bouts. Most striking, though, is their improvement. Apart from Pennsylvania, the other five swing states have enjoyed slower inflation than the national average over the past year.

Their job markets are also healthy, for now. American unemployment has drifted up since mid-2023, hitting 4.3% in July. In June, the most recent month for which state-level data is available, four swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—all had lower unemployment rates than the national rate. Michigan’s was the same. Only Nevada’s was higher. What is more, in the 12 months leading up to June they held up well. Whereas America’s unemployment rate rose by half a percentage point, all six of the swing states had more gradual increases, averaging less than a tenth of a point.

The growth picture is more muddled. Despite Nevada’s higher jobless rate (a feature of its tourism-heavy economy), its economy has grown by 14% between the start of Mr Biden’s presidency and this year’s first quarter, eclipsing national gdp growth of 8%. The other five swing states have grown a little more slowly than the national pace, though the gap has been minor for most. Wisconsin is the one laggard, with growth of just 3%, but even it has picked up speed in the past year.

One curiosity is that the Biden-Harris administration has not made more effort to rev up public investment in the swing states. Collectively, they account for about 13% of the American economy. Their share of the administration’s big spending packages (covering infrastructure, semiconductors and green technology) has been in line with that, at 12% of allocations. With a little more pork-barrel cynicism, Ms Harris would have had an even better story to tell swing-state voters. ■