‘Virtually certain’ Earth has already breached 1.5-degree warming threshold

The world may have already missed its chance to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to two new studies in Nature Climate Change.

The Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, with 196 countries agreeing to rein in greenhouse gas emissions to keep the global average temperature increase to “well below” 2 degrees and ideally cap it at 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times.

The new analyses showed the world would surpass the latter, underscoring the urgent need to cut carbon emissions.

“Every increment of warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius means worse extremes,” said Alex Cannon, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, and author of one of the studies. “If we continue warming the atmosphere, consequences will be greater.”

In 2024, global temperatures reached 1.5 degrees for the entire year, the first time it has happened in recorded history.