South Korea’s democracy has passed one big test
SOUTH KOREA’S presidential seal features two phoenixes, each symbolising leadership, righteousness and wisdom. After the country’s constitutional court ruled on April 4th to officially oust Yoon Suk Yeol for his short-lived attempt to impose martial law in early December, the phoenix flag came down from above the president’s office. The court’s righteous decision ensures that Mr Yoon will not lead again—he has been barred from higher office and faces criminal charges of insurrection. South Korean voters will have a chance to demonstrate their wisdom in new presidential elections, which are schedule to take place on June 3rd.
The next president will inherit a mess. The trial and the election are unlikely to heal the divisions that Mr Yoon has inflamed. Months of uncertainty have battered South Korea’s economy. Without clear leadership, South Korea has struggled to build ties with the administration of President Donald Trump, who has imposed tariffs of 10% on the country for 90 days, which could rise to 25%.
Still, South Koreans can feel relief that their democratic institutions survived Mr Yoon’s assault. Though the constitutional court’s decision took longer than in two previous presidential impeachment cases, it was unanimous. Some 14,000 police filled the streets ahead of the ruling, fearing clashes between warring camps, but the demonstrations passed off peacefully. Mr Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) accepted the court’s authority and called on its supporters to do the same. “We have restored constitutional order through democratic means, showcasing to the world the resilience of our democracy,” said Woo Won-shik, the speaker of the National Assembly and a member of the opposition Democratic Party (DP).
But the past four months have also laid bare the weaknesses of the country’s democracy. South Korean society has long been polarised, with the big parties divided over their visions of South Korea’s past and its future direction.
A post-coup era
Mr Yoon’s failed coup has deepened those divisions. Progressives have always relied on mass mobilisation. But right-wingers have learned to do so too, having absorbed bitter lessons from the aftermath of the impeachment of Park Guen-hye, another conservative president, in 2017. The progressive government of Moon Jae-in that followed pursued vengeance. “The right took the lesson that unless they fight back, they may face the same fate,” says Shin Gi-wook of Stanford University.
Those divisions will shape the forthcoming presidential campaign. Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the DP, is the front-runner. On March 26th an appeals court overturned an earlier conviction against him for election-law violations, removing a big obstacle to his candidacy. The conservatives have yet to coalesce around a single standard-bearer. Kim Moon-soo, the labour minister under Mr Yoon, has declared his candidacy and in polls leads other prospective party nominees; more than a dozen others may join the primary process.
The next president will have to move swiftly to stabilise South Korea’s relations with America. The alliance between the two has fallen into “a quiet crisis…that neither side will admit to”, writes Victor Cha of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think-tank. Pete Hegseth, America’s defence secretary, skipped South Korea on a recent tour of East Asia. Han Duck-soo, South Korea’s acting president, spoke briefly with Mr Trump about the new tariffs on April 8th, the first leader-level contact between the two governments since Mr Trump’s inauguration. (Mr Han was himself reinstated as acting president on March 24th after the constitutional court overturned his impeachment by the National Assembly.) Mr Trump may soon resume diplomacy with North Korea.
The situation at home is challenging, too. Even before the tariffs, the economy had struggled over the past few months: GDP grew by just 0.1% in the final quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter. Production is slowing, business sentiment is weakening and consumption is sluggish. Calls are growing for changes to the constitutional powers of the presidency. Mr Woo has proposed holding a national referendum on reform alongside the presidential vote.
The next president will have to find a way to move South Korea forward. Even as Mr Yoon leaves the presidential residence, he will remain in the spotlight: the charge of insurrection carries a potential sentence of life imprisonment or even the death penalty. His trial will begin on April 14th. Others who were implicated in the plot could face charges, too. Much will depend on how South Korea’s new leader balances the need for accountability with that for healing. Or as Mr Shin puts it: “Will he go for reconciliation or revenge?” ■