Donald Trump and Japan’s Ishiba Shigeru make for an odd couple
IN HIGH SCHOOL, Ishiba Shigeru joined the golf club. But he abandoned the sport after entering politics. The elitist hobby did not suit his image as a man of the people from rural Tottori, in Japan’s west (never mind that, like many Japanese politicians, he descends from a political dynasty). His loyal grassroots following ultimately helped him to become his country’s prime minister. Alas, a good short game would have been an asset in one of his most important tasks as Japan’s leader: managing the relationship with America’s mercurial president, Donald Trump, whom he will meet at the White House for the first time on February 7th.
Abe Shinzo, one of Mr Ishiba’s predecessors, used golf to help charm Mr Trump during his first term. Just over a week after the presidential elections in 2016, Abe rushed to Trump Tower with a gold-plated golf club as a gift. Following their first meeting at the White House the next spring, the two flew to Mar-a-Lago and hit the links. During Trump 1.0, Abe emerged as the Trump-whisperer par excellence; his example is now studied in capitals across the world.
Mr Ishiba will find it hard to replicate Abe’s connection with Mr Trump, and not just because he no longer golfs. “It will be like a second marriage after the love of your life dies,” says one person familiar with the Abe-Trump bromance. Moreover, given Mr Ishiba’s long-standing animus towards Abe, it may be a bit like being forced into an arranged marriage with your soulmate’s arch-enemy. No wonder Mr Trump rebuffed Mr Ishiba’s requests to meet ahead of his inauguration, while welcoming Abe’s widow, Akie, for dinner at Mar-a-Lago.
The power dynamics between Mr Ishiba and Mr Trump will also differ. When Mr Trump first came to office, on the global stage “Abe was the veteran and Trump was the new one,” says a lawmaker from Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. “Now it’s the reverse.” Abe also had a strong grip on power at home, which helped earn Mr Trump’s respect; Mr Ishiba leads a precarious minority government that may not last past this summer.
When asked about the potential chemistry, Japanese officials purse their lips and cross their fingers. Colleagues describe Mr Ishiba as modest, respectful, shy. But to Americans he can seem nerdy. “A strange duck,” says one former American official. “Awkward and weird,” echoes another. The prime minister’s enduring passions—model trains, anime and a 1970s girl pop band called “Candies”—may read to Mr Trump and his macho courtiers as hopelessly uncool. Where Abe was a charmer, Mr Ishiba is “more of a thinker, a philosopher”, says one Japanese official.
During Mr Ishiba’s visit he may not bring anything gold-plated, but he will come bearing policy gifts, such as plans to buy more LNG from America. He will recap what Japan has done to boost its defences since Mr Trump’s previous term, including raising security spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. He will surely note that Japan has the largest stock of foreign direct investment in America and that Japanese firms are directly responsible for around 1m American jobs. He will remind Mr Trump that Japan now accounts for less than 10% of America’s trade deficit, down from a peak of 65% in the early 1990s; he may point out that America currently runs far larger trade deficits with China, Mexico, Germany and even Vietnam.
There will be plenty of tense topics as well. Mr Trump’s tariffs may not yet be directed at Japan, but it will suffer nonetheless. Share prices of Japanese carmakers, which have large production bases in Canada and Mexico, have fallen in recent days. Mr Ishiba criticised Joe Biden for blocking Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel—a decision that Mr Trump promised to uphold. Mr Trump may feel Japan’s defence-spending pledge is inadequate, and push for 3% of GDP. Japan’s recent openness to restarting dialogues with China may rankle hawks around Mr Trump. If America abandons Ukraine, Japan will be dismayed.
Yet Japanese officials are nonetheless relatively sanguine about their relationship with America under Trump 2.0. “I like Japan,” Mr Trump said when Mr Ishiba’s visit was announced. Individuals with ties to Japan occupy high places in the new administration. Shared interests can keep the two countries close, even if their leaders are not. In America’s stand-off with China, Japan is the single most crucial ally. “America and Japan need to be friends in today’s environment,” says another Japanese official. “Even Trump understands that.” ■
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