The Key Congressional Races to Watch on U.S. Foreign Policy

Congressional races could have significant bearing on the future of U.S. foreign policy. Republicans are expected to win the Senate, while both parties are locked in a close contest for control of the House of Representatives. Although both parties share common ground on aid to Israel and competition with China, the future of aid to Ukraine could be at stake with Republican victories in one or both chambers.

The Senate:

Democrats are likely to lose the Senate and thus the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC), too. Here’s what to know about the committee’s current members this cycle:

1. James Risch (R-Idaho): The SFRC’s ranking member isn’t up for reelection until 2026; he is likely to lead the committee if Republicans win.
2. Ben Cardin (D-M.D.): Cardin, the committee’s current chair, is retiring this year. If Democrats win the Senate, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is expected to succeed Cardin and become the committee’s first woman leader.

Four members are in tight races, and the results could lead to new openings on the committee:

1. Jon Tester (D-M.T.): Polling behind Tim Sheehy by 5.3 percent
2. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio): Polling behind Bernie Moreno by 0.4 percent
3. Jacky Rosen (D-N.V.): Polling ahead of Sam Brown by 5.6 percent
4. Ted Cruz (R-Texas): Polling ahead of Colin Allred by 3.4 percent

House:

Texas Rep. Michael McCaul and New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, chair and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, respectively, are both expected to win their races.

On the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, Michigan Rep. John Moolenaar and Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi—chairman and ranking member, respectively—are likely to win reelection. House Speaker Mike Johnson has said that if Republicans win the House, then next year he will renew the committee, which is set to expire at the end of this year. Members of Congress have expressed mixed feelings about the committee’s continuation.