Manchester United v Manchester City: Premier League – live

Afternoon everyone and welcome to the big one. United may only be eighth in the league table, City may only be third, but the Manchester derby still gets the juices flowing. It pulsates with excitement, it vibrates with history, it resonates far beyond Manchester.

This is the 191st competitive meeting between the two sides and the first since each lost a legend from the late Sixties. Bobby Charlton and Franny Lee had a great deal in common. Both were superstars on the field who went on to a seat on the board. Both are still in the top five scorers in the Manchester derby – Lee second-equal on 10 goals, one behind the all-time leader, Wayne Rooney; Charlton fourth-equal (with Sergio Aguero) on nine.

Both did much to propel their team to the top. In 1968, when Charlton lifted the European Cup after scoring twice in the final, City had just won the league championship in Lee’s first season at Maine Road. His manager, Joe Mercer, called him “the final piece in the jigsaw”.

And yet both men also had to swallow plenty of failure. In his five years as United captain Charlton didn’t win a single home derby, losing four in a row before finishing with a goalless draw. City plummeted from the top of the tree to 13th. When Lee returned as chairman in the mid-Nineties, they were relegated from the Premier League. He managed to quit just before they were relegated again, slap in the middle of United’s golden age.

These days even a United fan would have to admit, through gritted teeth, that City are easily the better side and the stronger club. They have a great manager, an outstanding academy, a team with such a clear pattern that you barely notice when their most creative player is missing (Kevin De Bruyne, remember him?). They are so drilled and driven that they can lose a couple of games and remain every pundit’s tip for the title. They could score five today and surprise nobody.

United still have the bigger following, but as a team and an organisation they hardly deserve it. Under the dismal ownership of the Glasers, they’ve turned into the scatty neighbours. When they win, it’s nearly always by a single goal, a moment of individual inspiration. Their forwards have learned how to press but forgotten how to score.

Their manager seems to be following a very decent first season with the difficult second album. He can’t get a tune out of the men he has spent big money on, from Antony to Mason Mount. The only players he has in top form are the ones he tried to sell in the summer, Harry Maguire and Scott McTominay. A draw today would feel like a win.

The bottom line is that Pep Guardiola is twice as likely to prevail today as Erik ten Hag. That’s the story of the past seven Old Trafford derbies in the league (City four wins, United two, one draw). It’s also what the algorithms say: at Opta, they give City a 50pc chance of a win, United only 23. But this is sport, so anything can happen – and it’s a derby, which means that old truism becomes even truer.

Kick-off is at 3.30pm GMT. This sounds bizarre but may actually be a collector’s item: a piece of scheduling that shows some common sense. As summer time came to an end in Britain last night, it will feel like 4.30 on the nation’s body clock. And I’ll be back shortly after 2.30 with the teams.

Cover of today’s United Review. pic.twitter.com/v0uHCQGFVR

— Andy Mitten (@AndyMitten) October 29, 2023