Mexico can overcome its toxic populist politics

But the weeks leading up to the vote have been rough in both tone and substance. And it’s no wonder. For half a decade under López Obrador, Mexico’s democracy and its institutions, including the courts and the press, have been battered. Mexico can only hope that whichever candidate wins the upcoming elections, she will turn the country toward a more constructive style of politics.

López Obrador has illegally intervened in the campaign. In his morning news conferences, he has consistently ignored Mexico’s constitution, which prohibits the president from taking partisan positions or commenting on the election that determines their successor. On Monday, he described Sunday’s vote as a referendum. “It is not only about electing the authorities, electing the party, no, it is about electing the project of the nation that we want,” he said. López Obrador’s meddling has earned him numerous punishments from Mexico’s Federal Electoral Tribunal, the country’s highest electoral authority. In response, he has accused the tribunal of planning a “technical coup.”

Sadly, Sheinbaum has embraced her political mentor’s delegitimizing rhetoric. When asked in a nationally televised forum whether she would accept the voting results, she said she would wait to see “how things proceeded.” (A few days earlier, her opponent, Gálvez, told me in an interview she would “absolutely” respect the outcome of the election.)

This disregard for democratic norms is paired with another aspect of López Obrador’s governing style: a kind of cruelty fueled by a persecution complex.

Throughout his time in office, López Obrador has shown an alarming lack of compassion for victims in the country he governs, politicizing all manner of tragedy to serve his ends. He has shown indifference toward the victims of organized crime, the mothers searching for their disappeared children, the parents of children with cancer demanding medical attention, people affected by natural disasters, and women demanding an end to gender violence, to name a handful. His attitude stands in stark contrast to the “humanism” he has vowed to bring to Mexico’s public service.

This electoral season has only accentuated this ugly tendency.

Last week, a video shook the country. It showed the last moments of Dante Emiliano, a 12-year-old lying on a sidewalk in the city of Paraíso in the state of Tabasco after being shot three times. “I don’t want to die!” the boy screamed, sensing his life slipping away. The motives for the attack remain unclear. Some versions of the story suggest that Emiliano was to be the victim of a kidnapping. The only certainty is that he died in a hospital a short time later.

The story of the boy from Tabasco outraged everyone in Mexico — except, apparently, the president. After spending a couple of minutes describing the facts in his news conference, López Obrador shifted to a defensive crouch. “We are in election season,” he said. “Whatever it takes to hurt me, the corrupt magnify everything related to violence.”

López Obrador’s callousness belies a serious political vulnerability. His government has largely failed to address rampant violence and its consequences. Every month in Mexico, according to the government’s own figures, 64 children are killed by firearms. During López Obrador’s five years in power, 12,368 minors have been victims of homicide. But rather than acknowledge the extent of the tragedy and adjusting course, López Obrador goes to a populist playbook that has served him well: floating conspiracy theories and intimidating his critics while doing little to address the problem.

Again, Sheinbaum has adopted her mentor’s approach. “It’s better to make proposals than to criticize,” she recently remarked to Ceci Flores, a prominent member of a group of mothers searching for the disappeared, who had stood outside the presidential palace in hopes of meeting with López Obrador. Like most other victims who have requested an audience with the president, Flores was rebuffed.

On Sunday, Mexican voters will have the final say on the direction of their country under López Obrador. Sheinbaum seems to have a sizable lead (though analysts tell me the margins could be tighter than expected). If she wins, perhaps she will conclude that her mentor’s approach to politics — callousness, polarizing partisanship and a growing disregard for constitutional norms — is a winning formula. After all, López Obrador’s approval ratings have remained high throughout his presidency.

But there is a chance she chooses a different path. She could adopt a fresh, more decent approach to politics, showing voters, especially those who voted for the opposition, that she is her own politician, independent from her predecessor. If that were to happen, I would hope the opposition would meet her halfway and start building a better future. Mexico can’t afford to spend another six years paralyzed by rancor.