Struggling EU socialists play defense as right wing threatens core policies

STRASBOURG — No one wants to challenge the shoo-in. 

And so the socialists, the European Union’s center-left political force, are sending in an unknown Luxembourgish 70-year-old commissioner to challenge his boss, Ursula von der Leyen, in her campaign to keep running the EU’s executive arm.

Within the Brussels bubble, few seriously consider EU Jobs Commissioner Nicolas Schmit as a genuine challenge to the powerhouse that is the European Commission president. In fact, before his name circulated as the lead candidate for the European socialists, he was unknown inside the EU quarter.

When socialist parties and leaders from across Europe gather on Friday and Saturday in Rome to endorse Schmit as the face of their election campaign, they will do so knowing that no matter how little chance he has of winning, they remain a critical element of the compromise-making that defines EU politics.

And that gives them leverage. As the long-term second-largest group in the EU Parliament — holding some 20 percent of the seats — the socialists know von der Leyen and her EPP cannot govern without them and certainly can’t keep the far right at bay.

Even if von der Leyen remains in prime position after the election, the socialists sense they can wield influence by extracting policy concessions from her in exchange for their support in a confirmatory vote by MEPs (a vote she only narrowly passed in 2019).

With that in mind, the center-left aims to keep its focus on issues that matter to voters at a national level, such as equitability, social justice and the spiking cost-of-living crisis with hikes in food and energy costs plaguing the Continent.

“They are in a very comfortable position,” one EPP official said of the socialists. “They are the kingmakers. So they can ask for a lot of things.”

The Schmit agenda

Schmit is a safe bet when it comes to embodying the social democrats’ project of greater social protections, better working conditions and a fair green transition. The main theme of Schmit’s campaign will be “the importance of social [issues],”Schmit told POLITICO in Strasbourg this week.

“We are true to ourselves when we focus on defending households, workers and consumers,” said  Giacomo Filibeck, secretary general of the Party of European Socialists.

As the commissioner for jobs and social rights, Schmit has pushed for a more ambitious European social policy, for example via adequate minimum wages and adequate employment rules for gig workers.

“We will win, everybody wants to win. We have a good manifesto, we have strong ideas,” Schmit said.

A final draft of the Party of European Socialists’ manifesto, seen by POLITICO, puts a large emphasis on making the green transition equitable, protecting workers’ rights and upscaling affordable housing — without providing much policy grist.

A second campaign issue for Schmit is the “the importance of how we should continue with the Green Deal,” he said. 

Filibeck, the secretary general, wants the socialists’ party congress in Rome to send the message that the “Green Deal is on the ballot at this election”’ as he accuses von der Leyen of abandoning it. 

In recent years, Europe’s social democratic parties saw the popularity of this vision, which once broadly appealed to urban and industrial professionals, as well as unionized workers, corrode as Europe’s political center of gravity shifted rightward.

In Germany, the Social Democratic Party is down in the polls due to internal government struggles led by party-member Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In France, the socialists have nearly been swept off the political electoral map. 

The center-left grouping has had trouble finding a high-level candidate to take on von der Leyen since Frans Timmermans, the former European Commission first vice president and socialist heavyweight, left Brussels to return to the Netherlands in 2023. Almost by default, the job fell into the hands of the 70-year old Schmit. With his party now in the Luxembourgish opposition, it also was the only way for him to stay in Brussels.

Schmit’s supporters stress he should not be underestimated, complimenting his work ethic and political enthusiasm. “He’s very excited about this challenge. He loves to campaign and is very comfortable in speaking before big crowds,” one EU official, who was granted anonymity  as they were not allowed to speak publicly.

While the Socialists’ second place seems locked in, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, they are expected to lose some seats. Meanwhile, the cash-for favors Qatargate scandal, which hit the socialist faction in the European Parliament, looms over their credibility. 

In the Iberian Peninsula, Socialists appear strong but the party’s hold on Portugal and Spain is fragile. Portugal is heading to national elections, in which the center-right opposition appears poised to net the most votes, and in which the far-right Chega party may ultimately be a kingmaker. 

In Spain, Socialists remain in power due to mistakes made by the right wing nationally, said political scientist Pablo Simón. 

“But at the territorial level the party is very damaged,” he added, pointing to the party’s poor showing in last week’s regional elections in Galicia. 

Top jobs race

The inability to come up with a truly well-known figurehead remains a blow to Europe’s second-strongest political family, when compared to candidate-to-be von der Leyen, who has built an international reputation —  and relationships —  through the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Schmit, with nothing to lose at the end of his career, is the ideal sacrificial lamb to exchange for other opportunities for Socialists at the European level.

Schmit’s real job, in reality, is to pave the way for a larger share of Socialists in top jobs in Brussels, such as leading the European Council, European Parliament or running the EU’s foreign policy arm, after June’s European election. 

If they come in second, as predicted, they are eying the leadership of the European Council, currently held by the liberal Belgian Charles Michel. In 2019, they asked for the foreign policy chief role. 

For the European Council, the Socialists had their hopes pinned on former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, whose government fell amid corruption allegations. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s name also continues to circulate as a potential option for the role. 

But in recent months, the Socialists’ influence on the European political debate has been challenged by a rise in popularity among far-right politicians. And von der Leyen has said recently she wouldn’t rule out working with some parts of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists grouping which is battling for third place with the Liberals and the far-right Identity & Democracy. 

A likely outcome current polls predict is the EPP could end up as the kingmakers, able to make deals with whomever they want, be it the Greens or the right-wing ECR which is battling for third place with the Liberals and the far-right Identity & Democracy. 

The socialists’ manifesto hammers the center-right and liberals for being “parties that have enabled the far right to access power.”

“We will fight for pro-European values before the campaign and after the campaign, said Pedro Marques, a Portuguese Socialist European lawmaker. “That’s the question that will also be put to [EPP President] Mr Weber and to the EPP.”

Both Filibeck and Schmit are staunchly opposed to such cooperation, chastising the EPP for dallying too close to far-right and populist parties. 

Schmit has shied away from criticizing von der Leyen specifically, his boss since 2019, but he hinted that a new version of himself will emerge on Saturday.

“It’s not [about] attacking her, it’s making clear our differences, and also the differences between our political families,” he said.

Pieter Haeck contributed reporting.