China debates whether Trump is a revolutionary, or just rude

LOGICALLY, CHINESE communists should be good at spotting revolutionaries. In reality, officials in Beijing are as clueless as anyone when it comes to the most urgent question in world politics. Namely, is the second coming of President Donald Trump a ruder, rougher version of the first? Or is he now an out-and-out radical—willing to break any principle and abandon any ally to advance the national interest, as he sees it?

China has a lot at stake. For Xi Jinping and his regime, the first Trump presidency was a grave disappointment. Your columnist was posted to Beijing from 2018 to 2024. Early on he heard members of China’s ruling elite declare, approvingly, that Mr Trump was a transactional businessman with little interest in ideology. By the end of his first term, though, Chinese officials sighed in private that Mr Trump had been “hijacked” by anti-China hawks from America’s “deep state”. His administration imposed export controls on advanced American technologies and bullied allies to shun Chinese tech firms. It accused China of genocide in its far-western region of Xinjiang, and increased arms sales to Taiwan, the democratic island that Chinese leaders claim for their own.

Seen from Beijing, the first Trump term and Joe Biden’s presidency blended unhappily into each other. Curbs on high-tech trade multiplied. American envoys rallied Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and other friends to build coalitions and networks to counter and check China in its own region.

Now Mr Trump is back. The Telegram was recently in Beijing and Shanghai and heard Chinese officials and experts unable to decide whether his second presidency will be more of the same, or a radical departure. One camp fears that, for China, Trump 2.0 will be a repeat of the first. This group is sure that America and China are locked in a generational struggle for primacy that will outlast Mr Trump. These Chinese officials and analysts admit to surprise at Trump-world’s early bullying of such neighbours as Canada and Mexico, and its loud disdain for allies in Europe. But they see no reason to doubt that, once Mr Trump has imposed a more or less brutal peace settlement on Ukraine and has secured trade concessions from America’s old friends in the West, his gaze will swivel dangerously back to China.

This camp takes seriously a faction dubbed the “prioritisers”, meaning Trump aides who want to withdraw American forces from Europe in order to concentrate on containing China in Asia. On cue, Pete Hegseth, the American defence secretary, sounded tough on a recent tour of Asia. In Manila he reaffirmed American support for the Philippines, whose territorial disputes with China have caused repeated confrontations in the South China Sea. In Tokyo Mr Hegseth called Japan “our indispensable partner in deterring Communist Chinese military aggression”.

There is another Chinese camp, though, that sees today’s Washington as a city in the grip of a revolution. This group believes that “America First” may soon mean “America Alone”, as Mr Trump pulls down the pillars of the global trading system and betrays allies in Asia as well as Europe. This more alarmist faction sees both threats and opportunities in Trumpian radicalism.

In today’s Beijing, it is striking to hear scholars and retired party officials compare the second Trump term to the Cultural Revolution of 1966-76, in which they themselves suffered terribly. In effect, they are accusing Mr Trump of wrecking a global order that benefits everyone, including China and America. Mao Zedong’s fanatical supporters purged anyone deemed disloyal to the supreme leader, and destroyed state institutions and great universities. One survivor spoke at a Beijing policy forum of a lesson that he absorbed in those grim years. “Chairman Mao thought that you could destroy the old system and a new system would emerge.” Instead, China remained in chaos until Mao’s death.

Others see China making gains as Mr Trump shatters Western unity. Among them is Wu Xinbo, of Fudan University in Shanghai, a frequent visitor to Washington as Chinese delegations try to forge ties with Trump-world. “Look at the way the Ukraine war is ending,” he says. “Taiwan should know very clearly it can’t count on US military support in the Taiwan Strait.”

An expert on the South China Sea, Wu Shicun, questions whether America would provide the Philippines with military supplies or armed support should Chinese and Philippine naval or coastguard vessels clash again. That would set a new precedent. The Philippine government is being “prudent” right now “because they don’t know whether the Trump administration will provide the same support as Biden,” suggests Professor Wu, founder of the National Institute for South China Sea studies. Another scholar just back from Japan happily reports hearing “panic” there about Mr Trump’s long-term intentions.

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Both groups of analysts broadly agree, though, that the second Trump presidency is usefully focused on economics and domestic concerns, rather than on geopolitical rivalries with China. There is talk of trying to engage with the treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, who is seen as “reasonable”. Elon Musk is called a potentially invaluable advocate: a close Trump ally and China-admirer with huge investments in that country, notably in a giant Tesla electric-car plant. On the other hand, Chinese scholars wonder if Mr Musk might be “boxed in” by China hawks in Washington.

For now, Chinese leaders are hedging. To date China has retaliated cautiously against Mr Trump’s tariffs. Still, on April 1st it mounted unusually large military drills around Taiwan. As a well-connected figure puts it, China has “two hands” ready as it waits for Mr Trump to reveal his stance. If America wants to shake hands, China can. If fighting looms, Chinese fists are ready. ■