Trump greeted Starmer amicably as the UK prime minister arrived at the White House in a Black Escalade shortly after midday. The two smiled, exchanged handshakes and clapped each other on the back before turning to reporters. “President Trump, can you get a peace deal done in Ukraine?” on reporter yelled. “Yes, we can, we will,” Trump responded, flashing a thumbs-up as Starmer stood at his side.

Starmer did not respond to a question as to whether he would get a “backstop”, meaning security guarantees from the US for a European security force if a ceasefire is agreed. They quickly entered the White House, where the two were expected to hold a working lunch in the Cabinet Room before an expected press conference at 2pm ET.

That is the beginning of what Sir Peter Westmacott, a former British ambassador the US, has called one of the “most consequential meetings of a British prime minister and president that we have had since the second world war”. The two are expected to discuss trade, artificial intelligence and investment between the two countries as well.

2. Keir Starmer is appealing to Trump’s checkbook, not to his heart

The key pledge that Starmer has made en route to Washington is to raise defense spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2027, and then to 3% by 2035. He has called it the “biggest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the cold war”.

That firm commitment is seen as the enticement to convince Trump to provide a “backstop” to a European security guarantee to Ukraine that would restrain Russia from breaking a potential ceasefire. “The security guarantee has to be sufficient to deter Putin,” Starmer told reporters on his plane en route to Washington.

But in remarks at the British ambassador’s residence on Thursday, Starmer and his ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, also focused on the economic ties and opportunities for investment that exist between the UK and US. “We’re determined to help US innovators thrive in the United Kingdom so my message is we want to work with you, we want to welcome you to Britain, we want a new partnership because history shows that when we work together great things happen,” Starmer said.

Ultimately, Starmer will need to convince Trump that support for Ukraine and Nato is a good deal, and he will argue his position as a win-win transaction rather than an obligation or duty to world security that previous leaders in the United States used to believe.

3. It’s a balancing act, though, and Starmer wants to show he is an equal partner

Starmer trumpeted the “special relationship” between the United Kingdom and the US in defense and in business, but also directed some good-natured barbs at current administration officials, wryly commenting on the “buzz” in Washington these days and speaking about a new leader in Washington who some love and others “love to hate”. (He joked that this was the new ambassador, Peter Mandelson, but the oblique reference to Trump was lost on few.)

“We share the view that our best days lie ahead. And, you know, taking out a chainsaw isn’t quite my style,” said Starmer, clearly referring to Elon Musk, who has riled the British establishment by speaking out in favour of the far-right Reform UK party. “But we are stripping away red tape and bureaucracy. We are reforming permitting, getting things built, reducing barriers to investment and growth. And we’re open for business.”

Like Emmanuel Macron, Starmer needs to show the US president that he can stand up to him – and also show his constituency that he isn’t willing to sacrifice his values in order to make a deal. Macron walked that tightrope earlier this week, but it didn’t yield the main prize: the promise of a US backstop to European defense from Russia. Perhaps Starmer with a concrete offer on defense spending will have better luck.

4. Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs friends who can speak to Trump

The strains between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump are evident, particularly as the US strong-arms the embattled leader into signing a rare earths mineral deal that Zelenskyy initially refused to endorse. In the ensuing days, Trump called Zelenskyy a “dictator without elections”.

A report in French media on Thursday said that Trump even sought to cancel his meeting with Zelenskyy this week until Macron stepped in and convinced Trump to receive the Ukrainian leader at the White House on Friday. If true, that could be a crucial intervention to prevent a breakdown in talks between the US and Ukraine as the country’s fate hangs in the balance.

On Sunday, Starmer will host a meeting of European leaders that will include Zelenskyy. While the leader’s future appears uncertain, he may rely on European leaders such as Macron and Starmer to argue his side when his own relationship with Trump remains on shaky ground.

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