Alar Karis is the president of Estonia.
A billboard recently erected in Ivangorod, just across Estonia’s border with Russia, reads: “Granitsy Rossii nigde ne zakanchivayetsya” — Russia’s borders are endless.
This perfectly highlights just how much Europe and Russia differ in their mindset and values.
As nations, we measure our success by economic growth and improvements in social well-being. Russia, meanwhile, uses the imperialist metrics of expanding territory and military might. And we’re engaged in a perpetual value-based struggle because the EU’s eastern border with Russia demarcates the line between these two vastly different ways of thinking and seeing the world.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine came as no surprise to us. Russia seizes anything left unguarded. This is why we must leave nothing unguarded.
There’s no point wondering which country might be attacked next because, as history has repeatedly shown, if given the chance, all of Europe could be next. This is why Estonia is a strong advocate for the enlargement of both the EU and NATO.
Democracy itself is a threat to Russia’s current regime, which means every democratic state poses a threat to it. Thus, it is fruitless to base our strategies on an expectation that fundamental change will happen in Russia soon. Even when the current regime changes — as it eventually will — Russia’s attitude toward the West won’t.
The cultural DNA of a country that’s been hardwired to oppose the West won’t transform overnight. Preparing for war has been ingrained in the Russian mind. And those who think differently are either silenced, forced to leave, harassed, imprisoned or killed — as we have with great sadness again witnessed just recently..
Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t just want to conquer Ukraine, he’s also testing the democratic world’s resolve on behalf of the world’s other autocrats. He’s also fighting for North Korea and Iran — hence their support of his war effort.
This is a decisive moment for our generation. If we fail to show determination, we will be seen as weak. And as history has shown, weakness doesn’t lead to peace.
Alliances are what democracies do best. Authoritarian regimes have never been effective in maintaining them because for autocrats, cooperation is based only on short-term needs — not values. The democratic world does it better, it’s our strength.
And now it’s time to put that strength to good use. We need to make sure our values — freedom, democracy, welfare and security — will be guaranteed for the transatlantic community for generations to come.
Any European country would struggle to face Russia alone. But when we’re united, we’re invincible. Russia appears gigantic — a nuclear power with a population of close to 145 million. However, that must not paralyze us. There are three times as many people in the EU, and our total GDP is around 10 times higher than Russia´s. European democracies, together with deep transatlantic cooperation, are powerful enough to achieve peace without a battle.
So far, NATO has done well at deterring Russia, but we need to strive to keep the alliance just as strong in the future. The Russian threat is no longer exotic or abstract, it’s right before us. Furthermore, we’re all already in a hybrid war with our eastern neighbor daily. NATO and the EU cannot carry on in their casual peacetime rhythm. Rather, we need to be relevant.
For this, it’s essential to boost our cooperation. Together, we must make NATO’s defense stronger by tying plans to specific forces, capabilities and command structures. And we must exercise regularly to keep our collective readiness taut and sharp.
Together, we can strengthen the EU’s security architecture within NATO. As the EU and its individual member countries, we must boost our defense investment, increase our industrial defense sector’s capabilities and strengthen our armed forces. As the world’s most powerful economic union, the EU has an enormous role to play.
I support the idea of establishing a Defense Commissioner position and revising the EU’s defense strategy. I support adapting the European Investment Bank’s rules, as we must have a source of funding that also permits investment in military development. And I support an ambitious boost to the European Peace Facility, as it’s the only EU-level mechanism that jointly provides military support to Ukraine and our partners.
But that’s not all. We also need investment to better protect the EU’s external borders. And, naturally, we must review our critical supply chains to make them much more resilient.
Ukraine is capable of winning this war. It has already been proving for a decade now that a smaller country can resist a bigger one, if its friends assist. Estonia has calculated that if every European country contributes just 0.25 percent of its GDP toward Ukraine in the coming years, Ukraine will be victorious. Then, we can call Russia’s bluff that it can maintain this fight for much longer.
Above all, this is now a question of whether we have the will to take the inevitable, necessary steps toward guaranteeing freedom, welfare and security for the generations to come. We, Western countries, have shown before that together we can prevail.
Ukraine’s fighting a regime that wants to destroy it. Ukraine’s fighting the good fight. Let’s help it win.