AMLO’s dangerous last blast threatens Mexico
Most Mexican presidents would be a lame duck in their last month in power. But not Andrés Manuel López Obrador. After newly elected congressmen and women take their seats on September 1st, a month before president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum takes office, Mr López Obrador will take advantage. His ruling party Morena and its allies will be so dominant he will almost certainly be able to pass a constitutional reform of the judiciary.
That threatens the country’s democracy and economy. Under the reform, all federal judges would be fired and replaced by popular vote, supplanting a system of professional exams and, in the case of the Supreme Court and electoral courts, a nomination process. Members of a new disciplinary tribunal, with powers to punish judges, would also be elected. It is taking “a guillotine” to the judiciary, says Julio Ríos of ITAM, a university in Mexico City.
This would give Morena, and any future dominant party, immense sway over the courts. It further opens up the legal system to undue influence, corruption and interference by criminal gangs. Many fret that the quality of judges will fall: the reform cuts their salaries and reduces the required qualifications to a law degree with a solid grade. The judicial elections would be held next year and in 2027.
Mexico’s justice system does need an overhaul. Fully 90% of crimes go unreported, and few of those that are reported lead to convictions. It is true, as Mr López Obrador says, that access to justice is poor and some judges are corrupt. But the proposed reform does not tackle these problems. Indeed, it may make them worse. It does not mention prosecutors, who are widely recognised as the weakest part of the system. And it would make Mexico a global outlier. Few countries elect federal judges—only Bolivia elects its Supreme Court—and most that do struggle to retain judicial independence. Instead, the overhaul is typical of the outgoing president: throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Even Morena lawmakers struggle to justify it. Morena’s party leader called passing the reform “a present” for the president.
The reaction has been vociferous. The judiciary is on strike. Business associations in the United States and Mexico have warned against the dangers. So has the American ambassador to Mexico, who has hitherto tiptoed around Mr López Obrador. Markets are rattled. Morgan Stanley, a bank, downgraded Mexican shares to “underweight”. A Wall Street Journal columnist suggested people sell the peso. The reform may violate the USMCA, the free-trade agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada.
It is not just the judiciary that is at risk. Mr López Obrador seems intent on pushing through many of the other 17 constitutional amendments he introduced in February, when he lacked the votes to get them passed. The most worrying are those concerning Mexico’s institutions: putting the National Guard under the defence ministry (which the Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional); eliminating autonomous agencies such as the transparency body and the energy regulator; and banning the state electricity company from partnering with private businesses.
Mr López Obrador is unlikely to change course. He prefers to “pause” the relationship with the United States embassy rather than soften the overhaul. He wants to consolidate his “fourth transformation” of Mexico, which is “about getting rid of the old elite or any institution they could come to dominate again”, says Pamela Starr of the University of Southern California. Mr López Obrador also holds a grudge. His rancour towards the judiciary dates back to 2006, when the electoral courts ruled that his opponent had won a presidential election that he, without evidence, claimed was fraudulent. It has grown since the Supreme Court struck down some of his signature policies.
Ms Sheinbaum, the president’s mentee and successor, is fully behind the fourth transformation. Like Mr López Obrador, she appears to think democracy merely requires elections, with the winner ruling to benefit the majority, rather than needing other institutions and procedures, says Ms Starr. Yet Ms Sheinbaum at first appeared to have reservations about judges being elected by popular vote, before offering a full-throated endorsement. She may be able to make some tweaks in subsequent legislation—for example, on who can run for election. But her inability or unwillingness to put the brakes on her mentor is worrying democrats.
The fallout she will inherit could be particularly painful for the economy. The upheaval and uncertainty are putting off investors. The country needs them to quickly spur growth and finance the fiscal deficit, which is running at over 5% of gdp, the highest rate since the 1980s. Ms Sheinbaum has been trying to court investors, aware that Mexico needs to take advantage of a brief window to attract companies looking to relocate closer to the United States. She has told onlookers that they have “nothing to worry about”. But they do—and so does she. ■
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