How Tory MPs could derail Sunak’s Rwanda plan

Conservative MPs are split on their views about the government’s safety of Rwanda bill, which is aimed at overcoming legal issues that have delayed the deportation plans.

Pressure is being brought to bear on Rishi Sunak from moderate MPs, who coalesce under the banner of the One Nation caucus, while rightwingers associated with a number of groups known as the “five families” have already received advice from a group of lawyers that the bill does not go far enough to ensure that the Rwanda deportation plan is not be frustrated by court challenges.

To avoid defeat at Tuesday’s parliamentary vote, Sunak will need to keep the rebellion below 56 abstentions or 28 votes against.

The five families

Believed to be a reference to the five families who are alleged to control the mafia in the US, these MPs come from among the members of the European Research Group (ERG), the Northern Research Group (NRG), the New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group and the Conservative Growth Group.

The groups, who favour a hardline on immigration but have expressed differing shades of scepticism about the bill, have been meeting at Westminster on Monday. A “star chamber” of lawyers, convened by the ERG, has already told them that the bill does not go far enough to deliver the policy as intended.

The findings, by the veteran backbencher Sir Bill Cash and four others, said that “significant amendments” would be needed to stop the removal of people to Rwanda being frustrated through legal challenges.

While the bill seeks to allow parliament to deem Rwanda a “safe” country and block courts from considering claims that it will not act in accordance with international obligations, some on the right believe more radical measures are needed, such as moves to set aside international law.

The severity of the star chamber’s criticism took some by surprise and makes it more likely that Sunak will face a rebellion from the right of his party if he does not make concessions.

The ERG chair, Mark Francois, has said that the groups will have a “collective discussion” but John Stevenson, the chair of the NRG, said last week that he would be surprised if members opposed the bill. The most likely scenarios are that the MPs support the bill at its second reading on Tuesday with a view to seeking to amend it at a later date, abstain or vote the legislation down.

In terms of numbers, dozens of MPs are associated with both the ERG and NRG, while the other groups are smaller but still influential.

One Nation caucus

Conservative MPs from the largest single group in the parliamentary party – counting more than 100 members, almost a third of the total – have the numbers to bring down the bill.

But as a wing they have a vested interest in keeping Sunak in power as the failure of the bill would imperil his position and open the door to a challenge from the right.

Nevertheless, many are concerned that the bill sets aside some of the UK’s obligations in international law and have been taking legal advice from the former solicitor general Lord Garnier, who has told the BBC that the legislation is “political nonsense and legal nonsense”.

Matt Warman, a former minister who is a leading member in the caucus, wrote on the Conservative Home website on Monday that many of its members worried that declaring Rwanda a safe country in law was a push too far. But he expressed caution about whether now was the time for the parliamentary party to “push the prime minister off a tightrope”.

This week’s vote was not procedurally the moment where amendments would be laid, he added, but it was where all sides had a chance to set out their stalls and for the government to provide vital reassurances. Any big group of MPs was likely to hold a range of views and the next steps “shouldn’t be to push for a further compromise that might break a delicate balance”.

MPs from the caucus are to discuss the legislation at a meeting at Westminster this evening before releasing a statement. Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, and Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, will address the One Nation gathering.