Five charts that show why the BJP expects to win India’s election
WHEN THE Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won India’s general election in 2019, its campaign slogans also set its target: “ab ki baar, 300 paar” (this time 300 seats). It worked—the party and its allies swept back to power by winning 353 of 543 seats in the lower house of the national parliament, earning Narendra Modi a second term as prime minister. Ahead of this year’s election, for which the first of seven phases of voting begins on April 19th, the BJP has adopted an almost identical slogan. But what that lacks in creativity, it makes up for in ambition: the bar is now at 400. That threshold has been breached only once before: in 1984, by Congress, the main opposition party today. Can the BJP repeat that feat?
Most Indian pollsters suggest it will come close. Though it is difficult to judge the quality of India’s polling data (few outfits reveal their methodology), the consensus seems to be that the BJP and its allies will beat their 2019 tally and win around 388 seats. That falls short of the BJP’s stated ambition. But by all other standards, it would be an extraordinary triumph, cementing the BJP’s domination of national politics. Its rise has taken roughly a generation. Forty years ago, when it contested its first election, the party secured 7% of the vote. This time it is expected to win 40% (see chart 1).
Just as striking as the BJP’s rise is Congress’s fall. When the party broke the 400 mark in 1984, it was propelled by a wave of sympathy after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the prime minister, in October that year. That helped it win nearly half of the vote. India’s grand old party is now forecast to win just 21%. To put up a stronger fight, it has teamed up with 27 other parties in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Still, it is unlikely to make a dent: the average projection sees the alliance winning 118 seats (see chart 2).
A survey published earlier this month helps to explain these trends (see chart 3). According to Lokniti-CSDS, a research firm, 57% of Indians said they were satisfied with the BJP’s record in office. Of those who say they will vote for the BJP in this election, 18% want the party re-elected because of its welfare schemes. A smaller proportion backs the BJP for its Hindu-nationalist agenda. Mr Modi is also an especially popular politician. Nearly half of all Indians want Mr Modi as prime minister—more than the share that would vote BJP—compared with 27% who would choose Rahul Gandhi, the de facto leader of the Congress party.
For the opposition, the proposition of toppling the BJP may seem daunting. The ruling party’s strongholds are the north and west, India’s Hindi-speaking heartlands, where its Hindu-nationalist populism has proven popular. The approach has had far less resonance in the south, where the BJP has struggled against stronger regional competitors (see map 4).
The BJP also has a weaker grip on voters at the state level (map 5). Local governments, which like national ones are elected every five years, have some autonomy on matters concerning agriculture, health and public order. Decisions made by state politicians can feel more pertinent to many Indians than those made in Delhi, the capital. But the BJP holds only around a third of India’s more than 4,000 state assembly seats. It has suffered defeats to smaller, regional parties, notably in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, which are also going to polls in the coming month. But such smaller challengers would need many years to build up a national presence. Just ask the BJP. ■
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