How will the German election be decided?
If “none of the above” were an option in Germany’s election on February 23rd, it might win. Only 40% of Germans say Friedrich Merz—leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the probable next chancellor—is suitable for the job, but his opponents fare even worse. A shrinking economy and heated debate around immigration have exposed deep divides among voters. Our five charts, below, explain the trends that will determine the outcome of the election.
Many voters are switching allegiances. According to recent polling by YouGov, more than two in five Germans plan to vote for a different party from the one they chose in 2021. Many have abandoned the three parties that made up the “traffic-light” coalition—the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Olaf Scholz, the chancellor; the Greens; and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP)—before its collapse in November. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are the biggest beneficiaries (see chart 1). Around 5% of those surveyed were former SPD supporters who plan to vote for the CDU/CSU “Union” this time. A further 4% planned to switch from the FDP, whose projected vote share has plummeted to the point where it may struggle to remain in the Bundestag. This puts the Union on track to lead the next government.
However, the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has enjoyed the largest boost in support since 2021. Our poll tracker says the party is on track for its best-ever nationwide result, with a vote share roughly double the 10% it managed in the last election. YouGov’s data suggest that this increase comes mainly from those who did not vote last time (including those who were too young) along with a chunk of former Union voters (see chart 2). But with the Brandmauer (firewall)—a consensus among major parties not to collaborate with the AfD—still intact, the party has no chance of entering government.
Demographics can help to explain how votes will be cast. Using data from a survey of 1,787 voters by Stack Data Strategy, another polling firm, we estimated how age, education, occupation and residence affect Germans’ political preferences (we have previously used a similar method to explore voting patterns in Britain and America).
Our analysis shows that age is the best predictor of voting intentions, with older people far more likely to support either the Union or the SPD. A voter aged 75 or older is 13 percentage points more likely to vote for the Union than a younger voter of the same gender, education, occupation, employment status and home region (see chart 3). Our model finds retired voters are almost three points more likely to support Mr Scholz’s party—which helps explain why he has campaigned so strongly on pensions.
Meanwhile, young voters are quitting mainstream outfits in favour of smaller, ideologically diverse parties (see chart 4). Along with the AfD and the Greens, young voters appear to be more receptive to the FDP and The Left—the hard-left successor party of the East German communists, which has enjoyed an uptick in recent polls. Still, no single party enjoys the support of more than 20% of under-30s.
The legacy of the cold-war division is still visible in German elections. Our analysis finds that living in the west increases a voter’s chances of supporting the Union by eight percentage points and the Greens by three, all else held equal. Living in former East Germany increases a voter’s chances of supporting the AfD by seven points. YouGov recently estimated that the AfD was leading in 45 of the 48 electoral districts in the east (excluding Berlin), while the Union led in 220 of the west’s 247 districts (see map). The SPD was ahead in most of the (largely urban) rest.
Although he is yet to win over most German voters, Mr Merz is overwhelmingly likely to succeed Mr Scholz as chancellor after the election (coalition talks will take at least two months). Our forecast gives the Union a greater than 99-in-100 chance of winning the most seats. As Mr Merz himself has said, his success in government could represent Germany’s last chance at keeping the populists from office. ■