Will Donald Trump shape the Mexican president’s domestic agenda?

Dealing with Donald Trump is a nightmare for many world leaders, not least Mexico’s. Yet Claudia Sheinbaum has been doing unexpectedly well at it. The Mexican president has earned respect for her calm and level-headed handling of her northern neighbour, and has twice won her country a month-long reprieve from threatened tariffs of 25% across the board. Her team strikes a careful balance between toughness and flattery—witness a graphic they sent to the White House entitled “Look at the Results!”, implying that Mr Trump personally caused fentanyl flows at the American border to plummet.

This diplomatic success has allowed Ms Sheinbaum to step out of the shadow of her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. By demonstrating style and success she has beefed up her standing at home. Her already high popularity has climbed further, reaching 85% in one recent poll, up from 70% when she took office in October. She is winning over former sceptics, notably Mexico’s business leaders, says Fernanda Caso, a political commentator. She has also strengthened her hand within Morena, her own party. Morena and its allies already control both chambers of Congress. Dissent among party members, who often seem more loyal to her predecessor, is now less acceptable.

But to what extent will Ms Sheinbaum, almost six months into her presidency, be able to use her new authority—and to what ends? Mr Trump would like to think he is shaping her domestic agenda, especially on security. He justified initial threats to impose tariffs on Mexico’s failure to halt migrants and fentanyl from crossing the border. He has threatened military strikes against Mexican criminal gangs if the country fails to act, designating six of them as foreign terrorist organisations. American tariffs on steel and aluminium exports, which came into force on March 12th, have had limited effect on Mexico. But broader ones expected on April 2nd, unless Ms Sheinbaum can win yet another reprieve, could devastate the economy.

It is hard to determine how much Mr Trump has affected Mexico’s policy. It seems unlikely that Ms Sheinbaum would have sent 10,000 troops to the border in January were it not to placate him. And on February 27th she took the unprecedented step of extraditing 29 alleged Mexican drug-traffickers to the United States.

But even before Mr Trump’s return to power, Ms Sheinbaum had toughened Mexico’s stance on criminal gangs. Between October and January, Mexican seizures of fentanyl rose sharply. Her approach emphasises stronger investigative powers and better intelligence-gathering. Domestic outrage could reinforce this strategy: Mexicans were shaken by the discovery on March 8th of three cremation ovens at a ranch used by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, underscoring the brutal horrors that plague the country.

Security policy is where Ms Sheinbaum differs most from Mr López Obrador, whose “hugs not bullets” approach let criminal groups flourish. There are signs that she wants to change direction in other areas, too. Mr Trump’s threats could provide convenient political cover for broader policy shifts—if she wants to pursue them.

Similarly, Mr Trump may pep up Ms Sheinbaum’s embrace of pragmatic economic strategies. Her recent suggestion that Mexico and the United States should deepen their economic integration is notable, given her and Mr López Obrador’s ideological opposition to “neoliberal” economic policies. Both were historically against the North American Free Trade Agreement, the deal originally signed in 1992. Her “Plan Mexico”, a national economic strategy, seeks to allay American concerns about Chinese involvement in North American supply chains. The plan also encourages private investment: it winks at the business community, says Javier Aparicio of CIDE, a university in Mexico. This is yet another departure from Mr López Obrador, who was often hostile to private business.

Some worry that dealing with Mr Trump may nudge Ms Sheinbaum to concentrate presidential power all the more. Mr López Obrador had already dismantled many checks and balances. A controversial judicial reform he pushed through means that by September half of Mexico’s judges will be elected rather than appointed. Mexico’s judiciary will be less experienced, more politically aligned with Morena and more vulnerable to undue influence.

Ms Sheinbaum does not seem so eager to tackle corruption within her own party or among officials—despite Mr Trump criticising the “intolerable alliance” between Mexican politicians and criminal gangs. Acting on persistent allegations against the Sinaloa state governor, Rubén Rocha, would be tricky. But it would be a clear sign that Ms Sheinbaum is serious about combating crime.

The problem with having so much power is that there are fewer excuses not to use it, says Mr Aparicio. Mexico’s precarious economic circumstances—recession looks imminent—mean Ms Sheinbaum is limited in her room for manoeuvre.

Though impressive, her diplomatic nous is unlikely to divert the looming universal tariffs. Mexican officials are working towards being slapped with more limited tariffs than other countries, says Pedro Casas of the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico City.

Ms Sheinbaum’s presidency will be largely shaped by Mr Trump’s policies. Yet within that tricky context she has genuine opportunities to distance herself from the damaging parts of Mr López Obrador’s legacy, such as his ill-fated security policy, and to advance Mexico’s best interests. She would be wise to seize them. ■

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